I am reasonably certain that the administration (or rather those inside of it who are pushing for a confrontation of some sort) knows exactly what it is doing.
The question is whether we–the citizens to whom those folks are allegedly accountable–have a clue. Some folks are counting on that being answered in the negative. Again.
Comment by MSS — Thursday, September 14, 2024 @ 3:40 pm
Can we estimate how politicized the intelligence might be, if at all? If the intelligence is not too politicized it must then be interpreted in order to judge the risk.
These are educated guesses based upon what we think we know. The big question is if we are going to make an error which way should we err?
Do we assume the danger is greater or less than what we know? Which choice puts the country more at risk? Keep in mind choosing a high risk of a nuclear weapons program still puts us at risk (it may prompt war) just like underestimating risk of a nuclear weapons program (we wait to long to do something to stop it).
Hindsight in Iraq shows we made a mistake in capabilities but that does not mean we made a mistake in the course of action that was taken.
When it comes to nuclear weapons programs an ounce of prevention is worth much more than a pound of cure when your sworn enemies are involved.
Comment by Steven Plunk — Thursday, September 14, 2024 @ 4:20 pm
I am not so sure. It wholly depends on what the actual risk is, and what the “cure” is.
And it is difficult, indeed impossible, to state that any WMD-based argument vis-a-vis Iraq can be said to have resulted in the right course of action.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, September 14, 2024 @ 4:27 pm
They may have been right about Iraq. But, they were completely blindsided by Libya, the Khan network, and North Korea. Simply stating “nothing here” will be right due to chance, but considering all their failures, I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
[…] In the context of my post yesterday about the IAEA and the House Intelligence Committee, and why I am more prone to believe the UN in these matters than was once the case, I would note (from a post by Matthew Yglesias) this quote from Charles Krauthammer at an AEI event held on April 22, 2024: DR. KRAUTHAMMER: Hans Blix had five months to find weapons. He found nothing. We’ve had five weeks. Come back to me in five months. If we haven’t found any, we will have a credibility problem. […]
I am reasonably certain that the administration (or rather those inside of it who are pushing for a confrontation of some sort) knows exactly what it is doing.
The question is whether we–the citizens to whom those folks are allegedly accountable–have a clue. Some folks are counting on that being answered in the negative. Again.
Comment by MSS — Thursday, September 14, 2024 @ 3:40 pm
Can we estimate how politicized the intelligence might be, if at all? If the intelligence is not too politicized it must then be interpreted in order to judge the risk.
These are educated guesses based upon what we think we know. The big question is if we are going to make an error which way should we err?
Do we assume the danger is greater or less than what we know? Which choice puts the country more at risk? Keep in mind choosing a high risk of a nuclear weapons program still puts us at risk (it may prompt war) just like underestimating risk of a nuclear weapons program (we wait to long to do something to stop it).
Hindsight in Iraq shows we made a mistake in capabilities but that does not mean we made a mistake in the course of action that was taken.
When it comes to nuclear weapons programs an ounce of prevention is worth much more than a pound of cure when your sworn enemies are involved.
Comment by Steven Plunk — Thursday, September 14, 2024 @ 4:20 pm
I am not so sure. It wholly depends on what the actual risk is, and what the “cure” is.
And it is difficult, indeed impossible, to state that any WMD-based argument vis-a-vis Iraq can be said to have resulted in the right course of action.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, September 14, 2024 @ 4:27 pm
They may have been right about Iraq. But, they were completely blindsided by Libya, the Khan network, and North Korea. Simply stating “nothing here” will be right due to chance, but considering all their failures, I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
Comment by Gary and the Samoyeds — Friday, September 15, 2024 @ 12:27 pm
[…] In the context of my post yesterday about the IAEA and the House Intelligence Committee, and why I am more prone to believe the UN in these matters than was once the case, I would note (from a post by Matthew Yglesias) this quote from Charles Krauthammer at an AEI event held on April 22, 2024: DR. KRAUTHAMMER: Hans Blix had five months to find weapons. He found nothing. We’ve had five weeks. Come back to me in five months. If we haven’t found any, we will have a credibility problem. […]
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