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That article is incorrect. Dr. Paul has a great chance of winning, and the biggest thing helping him is the group of idiots and neocons he is running against. He has no juggernaut competition like an Obama or Hillary. That and the Republican support is in the toilet and the entire base is disenfranchised with the party.
Comment by Danny — Wednesday, October 10, 2024 @ 12:45 pm
I would think that Paul’s ability to be a spoiler is greater this round than it was in past cycles. He is certainly not the talk of mainstream media like the major candidates, but I think he has gotten more attention this time than I’ve ever seen him get in the past. If he does decide to run as a third party candidate I think he would draw more from the traditional parties than he has in years past on name recognition alone. I certainly knew nothing about him prior to this cycle. JMO
Comment by Jan — Wednesday, October 10, 2024 @ 2:14 pm
I don’t know much about Texas electoral law, nor about Paul’s chances of being reelected in his current seat. But in most states, you can’t be listed as a presidential candidate and a congressional candidate in the same general election. So, would Paul give up his congressional seat for the opportunity to get a few percentage points for president in November?
I agree with Steven that Paul is much more an outsider to his own party than Dean was to the Democrats. In fact, his next job pretty much shows Dean was not perceived as “out there.” Will Paul ever become head of the RNC? I am pretty sure not.
Actually, the best analogy for Paul is probably Kucinich–someone who (like Paul within the GOP) has a message that is very distinctive from the mainstream presidential candidates of his party and someone for whom there is a likely constituency that would love to see as a third-party candidate, but who presumably isn’t about to give up that seat in the House, as long as he expects he can retain it.
Comment by MSS — Wednesday, October 10, 2024 @ 3:34 pm
In Texas you can run for the Preisdent/Vice President and run for another office (or, at least, Congress). The law is often called the “LBJ Law” and was used by Lloyd Benson in 1988.
Now, it would be interesting to see if they law in any way proscribes someone from running for pres under one party label, and Congress under another. My guess would be that the law does not even concern itself with such matters, but I could be wrong on that count.
I agree that the Kucinich analogy is a better one.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Wednesday, October 10, 2024 @ 3:58 pm
[…] In a comment to this post, Matthew Shugart wondered if Ron Paul could simultaneously run for re-election to his House seat and also launch a third party bid for the presidency. […]
Pingback by PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Texas’ “LBJ Law” and Ron Paul’s Options — Wednesday, October 10, 2024 @ 4:32 pm
I can’t wait until you have to yank your foot out of your mouth for this article.
Cheers!
Comment by Dave — Thursday, October 11, 2024 @ 1:14 am