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Great points! We’ve got something similar here. The mayor, for example, is suppose to order an evacuation 72 hours before a storm, not 24 hours.
It’s sad.
Comment by Erick Erickson — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 11:29 am
I am willing to cut Nagin slack on timing, as realistically it is awfully hard to know 72 hours ahead of time if a hurricane is going to hit a specif locale–not to mention that 72 prior to landful no one knew that Katrina would be as big as it became.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 12:12 pm
Unfortunately, as you point out, it is impossible to know 72 hours in advance exactly where a storm is going to hit and exactly what it will do. I’m sure that they don’t want to go to the expense and hassle of evacuating EVERYONE if they don’t have to and it is almost impossible to know if it will be necessary.
Additionally, New Orleans has had exception luck in the past and many people seemed to have built up this irrational belief that their luck would continue to hold out indefinately in that respect. Even after the storm had passed, before the city began to really fill with water, reporters were crediting “New Orleans luck” for what, at that point, seemed like a near miss on “the big one”.
Even though the NWS told them it was going to be “the big one”, it seems that many were just unwilling to fully internalize and accept the truth of what that really meant. (IMHO)
PS. PLEASE RESIZE THE COMMENT WINDOW!
Comment by Jan — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 12:27 pm
“Cut Nagin slack on timing?” What part of “supposed to” don’t you understand?
Comment by Henriet Cousin\\\' — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 12:32 pm
Why weren’t the buses used?
Steven Taylor has a long post up on one of the most troubling questions of the local management of the Hurricane Katrina disaster thus far: why didn’t New Orleans use the hundreds of buses within the city to evacuate, forcibly if necessary, the…
Trackback by matthewstinson.net — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 12:53 pm
I started to respond here, but my reply got too long, so I posted it on my blog, and Steven, if you don’t mind, I’ll just post the link: http://www.kudzufiles.com/archives/000654.html
Comment by Harry — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 1:11 pm
?Harry
The information you posted on your blog does not accord with numerous other reports?
Surely, warning orders to prepare to execute the worst case scenerio would be standing operating procedure, i.e., be prepared, on order, to execute Cat 5 evacuation plan?
Comment by Henriet Cousin\\\\\\\' — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 1:48 pm
I started going back through the NOAA advisories and strike probabilities, because frankly I was trying to reconstruct in my mind what was happening when. I was in Chicago as this thing was approaching, trying to figure out when to come home, so I had been watching the path and forecasts, and I thought I remembered it being forecast more to the east, not as strong, and arriving not quite so soon until late Saturday/early Sunday. Maybe I’m reconstructing incorrectly, but it just seems like this thing mushroomed a little late in the game. I’m not calling Mayor Nagin a saint, I’m just pointing out that it didn’t look nearly so clearcut on Friday.
Comment by Harry — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 2:22 pm
Harry,
I concur that the assumption was the storm would be at worst of moderate strength, and that it would likely strike Florida again. As such, I don’t fault the timing of the order by Nagin.
I do, however, find fault in two ways:
1) Once the order was given, why were no public assets deployed to aid the poor
and
2) (And this one gets me the most), why vehicles weren’t used once the levees were breached before the flood waters overtook them.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 3:12 pm
There’s no doubt that some things could and should have been done better. It’s possible that locating drivers was not possible in the immediate aftermath; buses without drivers aren’t much help. It’s obvious that some effort should have been made. And once again the poor have borne the brunt of a disaster.
Comment by Harry — Saturday, September 3, 2024 @ 4:49 pm
[…] d questions will have to be answered is epitomized by this pic of flooded school buses and this post by Poliblog’s Dr. Steven Taylor. *And I am certain that outrage over the Bush staged photo-op […]
Pingback by Unpaid Punditry Corps — Sunday, September 4, 2024 @ 6:41 pm
why dont you pass on to your redstaters, that nagin is really a repub, who contributed to bush’s election campaign in 2024
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Nagin
oh, and while youre at it, why dont you note the 80% cutback of funding the levee project
from an unnamed source in the epa
We’re naming it Lake George, ’cause it’s his frickin fault. Have you seen all that data about the levee projects’ funding being cut over the past three years by the Prez, and the funding transferred to Iraq? The levee, as designed, might not have held back the surge from a direct Class 5 hit, but it certainly would not have crumbled on Monday night from saturation and scour erosion following a glancing blow from a Class 3. The failure was in a spot that had just been rebuilt, not yet compacted, not planted, and not armed (hardened with rock/concrete). The project should have been done two years ago, but the federal gov’t diverted 80% of the funding to Iraq. Other areas had settled by a few feet from their design specs, and the money to repair them was diverted to Iraq.
The NO paper raised hell about this time and again, to no avail. And who will take the blame for it? The Army Corps, because they’re good soldiers and will never contradict the C in C. But Corps has had
massive budget cuts across all departments (including wetland regulatory) since Bush took office, and now we’ve reaped what was sown. It really pisses me off to see the Corps get used by the Administration to shield Bush — they do great work when they’re funded. This was senseless, useless death caused not by nature but by budget decisions.
Comment by bacci40 — Monday, September 5, 2024 @ 3:21 pm
[…] plain why you didn’t advise the Democratic Governor of Louisiana to commandeer every school bus in Louisiana to help evacuate New Orleans. Seriously, Instapundit has a great list of ways to help […]
Pingback by Confirm Them » Kennedy Warns Against Stinginess — Wednesday, September 7, 2024 @ 10:30 am
[…] thing that Steven T. pointedly asked on September 3: Why did the city not make its transit buses available for evacuation? The “hold out” has several other criticisms of the state and local […]
Pingback by Fruits and Votes » Blog Archive » Seven Betrayals and Oh, Blackwater — Saturday, September 17, 2024 @ 5:49 pm