Comments on: The Rise of the Colombian Left (but How Far?) http://poliblogger.com/?p=10051 A rough draft of my thoughts... Sat, 18 Nov 2024 05:22:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 by: Dr. Steven Taylor http://poliblogger.com/?p=10051#comment-667078 Mon, 29 May 2024 19:17:02 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=10051#comment-667078 True about the "socialization" of the AD/M-19 and also true that new rules make that move unlikely. I still think that the AD/M-19 did not have to dissolve as it did had it better assessed how a party of its size should have behaved under the old rules. They were never, however, going to match the zenith of their popularity in the ANC elections. True about the “socialization” of the AD/M-19 and also true that new rules make that move unlikely.

I still think that the AD/M-19 did not have to dissolve as it did had it better assessed how a party of its size should have behaved under the old rules.

They were never, however, going to match the zenith of their popularity in the ANC elections.

]]> by: Matthew Shugart http://poliblogger.com/?p=10051#comment-667050 Mon, 29 May 2024 19:08:58 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=10051#comment-667050 I thought, too, that Gaviria would do worse and Serpa better than the polling numbers. But the opposite happened. Gaviria well outperformed his late polls and Serpa totally collapsed. This suggests to me that many Liberal voters might be ope to a center-left alliance in the future. Those "strategic errors" you refer to that the M-19 made were endogenous to the electoral system then in use. The M-19 got thoroughly socialized, and I do not mean in the ideological sense. I mean, they got co-opted by the personalizing and factionalizing incentives of the system. That isn't likely to happen to the PDA, partly because the change of the electoral system and the absence of the old bipartism create lots of new alliance opportunities for programmatic parties. You are right about the Dirty War parallel. very sloppy journalism there. I thought, too, that Gaviria would do worse and Serpa better than the polling numbers. But the opposite happened. Gaviria well outperformed his late polls and Serpa totally collapsed. This suggests to me that many Liberal voters might be ope to a center-left alliance in the future.

Those “strategic errors” you refer to that the M-19 made were endogenous to the electoral system then in use. The M-19 got thoroughly socialized, and I do not mean in the ideological sense. I mean, they got co-opted by the personalizing and factionalizing incentives of the system.

That isn’t likely to happen to the PDA, partly because the change of the electoral system and the absence of the old bipartism create lots of new alliance opportunities for programmatic parties.

You are right about the Dirty War parallel. very sloppy journalism there.

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