Comments on: Warner not to Seek Re-election http://poliblogger.com/?p=12454 A rough draft of my thoughts... Wed, 03 Oct 2024 08:39:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 by: MSS http://poliblogger.com/?p=12454#comment-1364347 Fri, 31 Aug 2024 21:29:45 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=12454#comment-1364347 Of course, partisan success in US congressional elections depends so much on recruitment, and recruitment depends on opportunity, and open seats create great opportunity. I don't know who the possible candidates are, but the Democrats' chances of holding both Virginia seats in 2024 and beyond just went up dramatically with this announcement (as Steven suggests). Another possible spin is that Warner thought he would face a serious challenge and decided not to push it. Lots of retirements are of that sort--reading the tea leaves, so to speak. Or maybe he just doesn't like being in the minority. (I would give the GOP very bleak chances of winning back the Senate in 2024--worse than of retaining the presidency.) Of course, partisan success in US congressional elections depends so much on recruitment, and recruitment depends on opportunity, and open seats create great opportunity.

I don’t know who the possible candidates are, but the Democrats’ chances of holding both Virginia seats in 2024 and beyond just went up dramatically with this announcement (as Steven suggests).

Another possible spin is that Warner thought he would face a serious challenge and decided not to push it. Lots of retirements are of that sort–reading the tea leaves, so to speak.

Or maybe he just doesn’t like being in the minority. (I would give the GOP very bleak chances of winning back the Senate in 2024–worse than of retaining the presidency.)

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