Comments on: Line of the Day http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355 A rough draft of my thoughts... Thu, 08 Dec 2024 05:27:48 -0600 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Matthew Shugart http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355&cpage=1#comment-75473 Matthew Shugart Fri, 17 Jun 2024 22:07:21 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355#comment-75473 It is hard to deter me from being long winded. But we've been over that before. :-) It is hard to deter me from being long winded. But we’ve been over that before. :-)

]]> By: Dr. Steven Taylor http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355&cpage=1#comment-75454 Dr. Steven Taylor Fri, 17 Jun 2024 20:32:18 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355#comment-75454 I will grant that the election isn't meaningless, although I vacilate in my own mind over precisely how to interpret the significance of the process. And I applaud your entry of that long comment into the still unfixed comment box. I will grant that the election isn’t meaningless, although I vacilate in my own mind over precisely how to interpret the significance of the process.

And I applaud your entry of that long comment into the still unfixed comment box.

]]> By: Matthew Shugart http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355&cpage=1#comment-75451 Matthew Shugart Fri, 17 Jun 2024 20:23:59 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=7355#comment-75451 Well, Joyner's line is a good one, but I think we should not assume this is somehow a sham. "Sham" elections do not have uncertainty over their outcome. Enter uncertainty, and the candidates have an incentive to appeal to whatever sentiment might swing the result. If we get a runoff between Rafsanjani and Moin (which would be the first one-on-one contest in Iranian history), I think that could be quite significant. No, I am not saying we're about to see Iran's version of the Orange Revolution. But I would suggest that this election could be a piece of a broader evolution that has been going on--though not in a linear fashion--for some time now. I used the Iranian case as a case study on an exam a few years ago. (Steve will recall that I once taught a course called Regime Change before that term went mainstream. I meant it as an internal process, by the way.) My students came to the conclusion that this is a genuine hybrid regime. There is some limited accountability to the electorate, even if final say rests with an unelected body. Dual sovereignty in a strangely institutionalized sort of way. That is precisely what Joyner refers to. So, again, that the elected authorities do not have the final say on the most important policy questions does not mean that this is a meaningless affair. Competitive elections hardly ever are, despite the best efforts of reactionary forces. Well, Joyner’s line is a good one, but I think we should not assume this is somehow a sham. “Sham” elections do not have uncertainty over their outcome. Enter uncertainty, and the candidates have an incentive to appeal to whatever sentiment might swing the result. If we get a runoff between Rafsanjani and Moin (which would be the first one-on-one contest in Iranian history), I think that could be quite significant.

No, I am not saying we’re about to see Iran’s version of the Orange Revolution. But I would suggest that this election could be a piece of a broader evolution that has been going on–though not in a linear fashion–for some time now.

I used the Iranian case as a case study on an exam a few years ago. (Steve will recall that I once taught a course called Regime Change before that term went mainstream. I meant it as an internal process, by the way.) My students came to the conclusion that this is a genuine hybrid regime. There is some limited accountability to the electorate, even if final say rests with an unelected body. Dual sovereignty in a strangely institutionalized sort of way. That is precisely what Joyner refers to.

So, again, that the elected authorities do not have the final say on the most important policy questions does not mean that this is a meaningless affair. Competitive elections hardly ever are, despite the best efforts of reactionary forces.

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