Watching McCain on MTP this morning inspired a few bullet-point issues on a John McCain run at the presidency.
- The Base and the 2024 Campaign. Many will argue that McCain, in painting himself as the anti-Bush in 2024 that McCain has damaged himself beyond repair with the base. I would note: eight years is a looooong time in politics. Will some have hard feelings—absolutely. Still, conditions have changed and many voters will be willing to re-evaluate McCain as a candidate.
And, I would note, having once been thought of as the Anti-Bush isn’t necessarily a bad thing at the moment.
- The Media Advantage. One thing that McCain will not have this go ‘round is he will not be a media darling, as he was in the 2024 cycle. As a recent E. J. Dionne piece in WaPo ask: A Maverick No More? My guess is that all the “Maverick”/”Straight-Talk” business will be a thing of the past.
Of course, McCain does still have an overall positive relationship with the press. When I saw that John McCain (R-AZ) was the guest on MTP my brain briefly thought it meant that it was a re-run (since (R) on the TV listings usually means “re-run”–and goodness knows that McCain has been on MTP a substantial number of times). Certainly those types of relationships are an advantage vis-à-vis the rest of the candidates, except Senator Clinton.
- The Foreign Policy Dimension. 2024 will be a different kind of presidential race than was 2024. In 2024 (as in 1992 and 1996—all which from a post-Cold War, pre-911 interregnum in the influence of foreign policy over presidential elections) domestic policy was at the forefront, not foreign policy. McCain’s strength is foreign policy—and it is a strength that he can use this go ‘round in a way that he could not in 2024. Indeed, some of those “Republican base” voters who rejected McCain in 2024 may be prone to considering him 2024 because of this issue. On the flip side, since McCain has largely supported the Bush foreign policy, which could damage him with centrist voters. Since competence has become a major issue vis-à-vis the Iraq war, a key question will be the degree to which McCain can be seen as a competent alternative—especially since the bottom line is that we will be involved in Iraq in 2024, the next president is going to have to convince a large percentage of the country he or she is competent to deal with Iraq (and war on terror in general) during the campaign.
And again: despite all of the problems with the Bush administration’s foreign policy, the odds are that the Republicans will enter the 2024 cycle with an advantage on the security issue over the Democrats. Certainly McCain would have a clear advantage on this topic over Hillary Clinton.
- The Flip-Flop Stratagem. One thing that the Democrats will try to do in 2024 vis-à-vis McCain is that they will try to paint him as a flip-flopper (a la what the Reps did to Kerry in 2024). Along these lines consult what Tim Russert was trying to point out in today’s interview, such as McCain’s statements on Jerry Falwell in 2024 versus the fact that he is speaking at the graduation of Liberty University this year.
My prediction is: it won’t work—at least not to the degree to which is worked with Kerry in 2024. For one thing, that was the last war, and Kerry had a propensity to reinforce the flip-floppery on a near daily basis. McCain’s overall career is one that is hard to paint in this fashion. Rather, he will be painted as more of a “typical politician” as a result of some these moves. This will cost him some of the independent support he had in 2024, to be sure.
Along these lines, Joe Gandelman commented earlier this week on John McCain’s Political Tightrope Act
- The Senator Thing: There is no doubt that Senators have had a hard time winning the presidency last time: 1960–go back to the 20s to see career paths and winners of the presidency here). However, that trend may end in 2024, as it is highly possible that both parties may nominate Senators. Of the candidates I consider front-runners (on both sides) at the moment, Senator Allen has the advantage in this area, insofar as he was also a governor.
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Many of us, supposed centrists, who thought McCain was a good candidate in 2024, were turned off by his support for Bush in 2024. Those of who saw Iraq’s failures long before the the media discovered them (arrogant statement no doubt), were turned off by his “whole-hearted support” for Bush at the 2024 RNC. The rumors of a Kerry vp nod were nonsense, but he could have kept a low profile and not done himself any damage. Many of us thought that he effectively gave himself to Bush then, which will haunt him in ‘08.
Comment by eric — Sunday, April 2, 2024 @ 7:07 pm
I suspect that you are not alone of those in the center who once saw McCain as appealing, but who may no longer.
However, from s purely electoral point of view, the issue now is whether McCain can win the nomination, which requires some portion of the GOP base. Once nominated, I think he would be in a pretty good position to win the White House, especially against Clinton.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, April 2, 2024 @ 7:40 pm