I thought this already, but after watching Florida dismantle OSU last night, I have to wonder how long it will take for Saban to get Alabama back to the top. Consider: he will have to deal with (either on the regular schedule on in potential SEC title game): Auburn, (which has been the superior team in Alabama for some time, and remains such), LSU (which loses its starting QB, but I think has another potential stud waiting in the wings), South Carolina (which is still on the ascendancy it would seem–they almost beat Florida in Florida this year), and, of course, Florida (with Tim Tebow set to take over at QB and I think he has more upside than Leak).
Now, I think that Saban is a good coach, although I doubt he is the Football Messiah that he is being made out to be in some quarters. Not only is he going to have to fix whatever problems Shula (and the NCAA sanctions) have created at Alabama, but he has to contend with a number of very strong teams in his conference–teams that look to be at least one or two quanta beyond the Tide at the moment.
There will be high expectations even going into the first year (there are always high expectations in Tuscaloosa–usually unrealistic ones), but he will get something of a pass. Still, by the second year there is going to be some serious pressure to take the team up several notches. If he doesn’t, the negativity will being in spades–and look for many who are defending or ignoring Saban’s salary at the moment to all of a sudden become outraged at the numbers.
In regards to expectations I would note that just a year ago, Shula had Alabama back in the top 5 with a 10-2 record (and was granted an extension and a raise). Further, everyone who was paying attention knew that Alabama was going to be much worse this year due to the loss of key talent. Nonetheless, the season ended up being treated like a surprise here in Alabama. The point isn’t that Shula deserved to keep his job (more to the point, he didn’t deserve to get a raise and extension after one good season), but that opinions of coaches are mercurial in Crimson Nation. At the moment, the fans are seeing SEC Championships and runs at National titles in the near future, but I have to say that at best such runs are several years aways given the current state of the Tide and especially of the SEC. As such, how long before Saban is viewed as dog (especially given his price tag?).
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Pingback by PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Saban — 01/9/07 @ 8:49 am
I am a rabid Bama fan and I understand that it will take several years to rebuild the program and it will be worth the wait. We are not as cut throat as you make us out to be and I don’t care if they are paying Saban $50 million as long as we have money to run the university and pay him. With the possible exception of some tax money, it’s ain’t my money.
Comment by Talmadge East — 01/9/07 @ 11:23 am
First of all, to become a “vastly superior team” Auburn has had to benefit from probation on Bama’s behalf. With the recruiting field now leveled, and a big time coach at Alabama we will see that rivalry regulate itself to where neither team is dominant and it goes back and forth. Further, if you were to examine the roster on LSU’s team, and there is no doubt that it is a strong one, but it is Saban’s and not Miles’ recruits that are making that engine go. In a couple of years you will find out what Miles can really do, and in fact there was only one or two kids on the field the other night that actually can be attributed to Miles. I will give you that Tebow is a phenomenal athlete who has made some great plays this year, but even the announcers seemed cognizant of the fact that without Leak this team would not be playing for the championship, further with the reckless abandon that Tebow plays with one can only question whether he will remain healthy for an entire SEC taking the risks and such that he has done this year. As for South Carolina, no doubt that the Ole Ball Coach is a brillian Coach, but he still has a bare cupboard and still has a ways to go before he can ascend the SEC ladder. Saban has a long way to go as well, but he will recruit well at Alabama and there is a great deal of talent there. It will be nice to see what coach can do with the talent that is there. Even with Shula’s incompetence we were in every game this year except maybe two right up until the end of the game. By the way I think that Alabama fans, such as myself should have the expectations tempered somewhat for the next few years.
Comment by clint — 01/9/07 @ 11:46 am
Tal:
“it’s ain’t my money”
Spoken like a diehard Democrat
Clint:
My concerns in terms of fan expectations aren’t from reasonable persons such as yourself, but rather your typical Paul Finebaum caller and/or you typical Bama booser.
Although I will say that while there is no doubt that Bama’s sanctions redounded to Auburn’s benefit, methinks that you give them too much credit for Auburn’s rise. Sanctions on your chief in-state rival or no, an undefeated season is hard to come by in a major conference (or any conference, for that matter)–just ask OSU.
I don’t see Alabama having, even sans sanctions, the same kind of recruiting edge that it once had over Auburn.
Comment by Steven L. Taylor — 01/9/07 @ 12:05 pm