May 01, 2024And the 2024 National Champion Is...I remain amazed at the earliness of the 2024 campaign, and the various references to polls at this very early stage. It is like starting the BCS poll in August and taking it seriously. Here are the latest (mid-April) numbers from NH: John Kerry is maintaining his lead among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire while Howard Dean has lost some of his pre-war momentum from a month ago. Preference for Kerry is at 24% while preference for Dean has dropped back to 19%. Preference for Dick Gephardt is at 15% and preference for Joe Lieberman is at 13%.. I am somewhat surprised at the basic breakdown, but am also firmly of the opinion that these will not be the finale numbers by a longshot--for example, if Dean comes in second, I will be fairl surprise, even though he is a New Englander. Source: The New Hampshire Poll Posted by Steven Taylor at May 1, 2024 08:29 AM | TrackBackComments
So you see Dean coming in third or lower? Personally, I would be surpised NOT seeing Dean in second (or first), considering that VT/NH share a long border together. I think that NH dems are familiar with both Dean and Kerry and are more likely to vote for them. Yeah, I know that NH in general is a bit less hippie oriented than VT. Posted by: joy at May 1, 2024 10:32 AMThe New England-connection/geography helps, and he does have a certain amount of appeal to the Democratic base. However, I think that with his signature issue (anti-war) gone, and with the likely fact that he will be object of attack from Kerry and the other front-runner-wannabes, that he will fade. And I will admit, I have a gut-reaction that tells me he won't wear-well over time. But since that is highly un-analytical, I shan't give it much credence at this time. Posted by: PoliBlogger at May 1, 2024 10:37 AMYou mean with his famous ability to speak and say something totally off the wall? It's one thing to do that when you're the head of a state that is smaller than most metropolitan areas. His supporters call it "telling it straight". However, on a national level, I think you need to be able to explain your beliefs in a way that won't create a firestorm. Say what you will about W., at least he has good advisors who help him along. Posted by: joy at May 1, 2024 12:59 PMI find him personally grating, but I also know that part of that is ideological. But yes, his penchant for the off-the-wall is likely to wear thin over the next nine months (i.e., the length of time before any votes are cast). Posted by: PoliBlogger at May 1, 2024 01:07 PMPost a comment
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