Did Bush Lie?

The “Bush lied” crowd is wondering (for example: here and here) why there isn’t any outrage on the WMD issue. Why, they ask, isn’t it obvious that the President knowingly misled the nation? John Kerry is currently trying to stoke the fires of this issue.

There is a simple answer (indeed, there are many, but this is the bottom line): people understand that it is entirely possible for a person, who is already predisposed to a particular position to be honestly persuaded by evidence that supports their position, and to discount evidence that refutes their position. Indeed, we all do this all the time.

Absolute certainty is a rarity in life, and especially in intelligence/foreign policy.

Indeed, I would argue that the great irony here is that the “Bush is lying” folks are doing the exact thing: they see the deviation between what the President said and what has been found in Iraq and have come to the conclusion that they prefer: that Bush is lying. In so doing they are rejecting the other, reasonable, possibilities. If it ends up they are wrong, can we, in turn, say they were lying? (Keeping mind that lying means a conscious and deliberate misstatement of the truth, often to benefit oneself).

I know I supported the war, so am already predisposed to this position. However, as a political scientist I am used to the fact that political life is not simple causality, and that when there are as many variables as were present in the Iraq situation, that outcomes are not going to be exactly as predicted. Reality always has a way of deviating from theory.

Now, I still do think, as I said in my most recent News column, that there are problems here with the intelligence. Clearly, the weapons were not where we thought they were, and there remains an issue as to where they were, are, or whether they existed the way we thought they did.

However, these facts do not sum up to the obvious conclusion that the administration lied, or even consciously misled. The only way to believe that is to want the evidence to demonstrate that this is the case. Imagine that.

Posted by Steven Taylor at June 20, 2024 10:11 AM | TrackBack