An Amusing Blast from the Past

Here's an amusing bit of fun-poking aimed at presidential prognosticators from the 2024 race:

Al Gore will be the next president of the United States. He is, after all, two whole inches taller than his Republican rival. And, as statisticians will tell you, the tallest guy always wins.

Nope. George W. Bush will take the White House. He's up against a sitting vice president. And, political scientists note, the incumbent administration's vice president usually loses if he runs.

Think again. It's Gore. The economy is good, the president is popular, so the incumbent party wins. Plus, the last winner of the Rose Bowl had an animal for a mascot, and statistical models show that Democrats win in those years.

Wait a minute. It's Bush. Easter fell in April this year, and statisticians say that in that case, the Republicans capture the presidency.

Hold everything. It's too close to call. Surveys show that over the past century, more often than not, the candidate with the most letters in his last name wins. That's four for Gore, four for Bush. Forget it, "W." That initial won't count here.

Who needs campaigns, polls, issues, ideologies? Prognosticators believe they can tell you who your next commander-in-chief will be without any election-year agony -- almost without any election-year, period. In an era of instant information, the presidential prognosis is more irresistible than ever.

Of course, there are exceptions to all the truisms.

Among them: Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford even though Carter is several inches shorter.

Martin Van Buren and George Bush defied the vice-presidential curse.

And the extra letters in Michael Dukakis' name couldn't save him from George Bush.

But distinguished academics brandishing mathematical formulas, statistics-lovers with an eye for quirky theories, even astrologers who monitor the planets all believe they have a window into this year's election. They know how you will vote, even if you don't.

Source: Gore is standing tall, while Bush is sitting pretty