2004 Preview

Democrats Unlikely To Retake House

Numerous Democratic strategists have become convinced in recent months that their party is unlikely to pick up the dozen seats it needs to retake the House, even in the face of a sluggish economy and mounting questions about Iraq that could be issues to use against the Republican-dominated administration.

Analysts who have been following the early battle for control of the 435-member House say a relative lack of public anger to fuel anti-incumbent voting and a strong GOP fundraising effort underway will be difficult for Democrats to surmount.

The biggest factor, however, is one that has thwarted Democratic hopes before and, if anything, is growing worse: Congressional redistricting has produced a remarkably small number of competitive districts nationwide. As a result, Democrats must win a huge percentage of the toss-up races to regain the House majority they lost a decade ago.