I agree, Steven. Both Simon & McClintock need money. Simon has it but, unlike Ueberroth, still won't commit it - a dumb political move. $2 million might have pre-empted McClintock 3 weeks ago.

The poll itself is no big surprise or deal: Just establishes basic name ID levels for most. Let's see what happens after a couple of weeks of ads and candidate statements. My guess is AS will look stronger and CB weaker, as almost all Bustamante's support coming from "Noes." If Davis keeps tanking, Bustamante's numbers go with him.

The question is really: Is Arnold at 22% because the rest are waiting to hear his ideas, or is he at 22% because the other 78% think, "No way in hell am I voting for the 'Terminator'"?

Arnold is near the top because he's got the name recognition -- but for him that's a bad thing. He's probably got more name recognition than Bustamante who looks more like a 'real' candidate.

You are assuming that Simon voters would pick Arnold as their second (or third) choice, but that's assuming that the major distinction in voters' minds is Dem vs. Repub.

I'm guessing a lot of the Arnold voters have other celebrities on the top of their list, while Bustamante (and Simon and McClintock) supporters have other real politicians on the top of theirs.

If I'm a liberal, and Bustamante suddenly drops out, that doesn't mean I'm going to move down and vote for liberal Guido Sarducci -- I'm going to pick a 'real' politician instead.

Arnold -- at 22% -- has likely peaked. But who's to say that it still won't be enough?

Actually, I honestly don't think that he has peaked (at least in the sense that he is now headed downward).

I think, as I have argued, that his name recognition is a good thing (indeed, name recognition is almost always a good thing).

And, given that he has some political bona fides (past Republican activism, the proposition he sponsored in 02, etc.), he is more than just a celebrity running.

And yes, I think that a substantial percentage of Simon, McClintock or even Uberoth voters would vote for Schwarzenegger if those candates were to drop out. There wouldn't be 100% transfer, but there would be some.

Indeed, I would argue that neither McClintock, nor Simon has a chance in this race and that the California Republican Party would be best served if they dropped out at this time (indeed, if they had never run).

Steven,

Given what you've written in this post, I'm surprised you're not more of a proponent of Instant Runoff Voting, which allows voters to rank candidates. That's the best way to avoid helping elect the least desirable candidate.

I am not opposed, per se, but prefer a more traditional run-off system.