PoliBlog: ReCAL Shuffle

September 10, 2024

ReCAL Shuffle

Here's the current low-down on the effects of the Ueberroth exit:

Experts had expected GOP front-runner Arnold Schwarzenegger to pick up most of Ueberroth's 5 percent support in the race to replace Gov. Gray Davis in the Oct. 7 election.

But a Field Poll released Wednesday showed Schwarzenegger and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat, each picked up 2 percentage points with Ueberroth out of the mix.

State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Northridge, the leading conservative in the race, took the final 1 percent of Ueberroth's supporters, going from 13 percent to 14 percent.

Of course, since Arnie and Cruz were within the MOE of each other before, and we are talking about only 5 points anyway, it really is rather hard to say who got what or not.

Surely McClintock, despite protestations to the contrary, will eventually drop out. He hasn't a prayer and all his candidacy will do is help Bustamante.

Of course, never bet against the ego of a politician, I guess. Still, I think he will get out at some point. Remember: both Issa and Simon both said were in no matter what, but both dropped out, sometimes within a day of saying that they were staying.

Source: Candidates vie for Ueberroth's votes now that he has stepped down

Posted by Steven Taylor at September 10, 2024 09:16 PM | TrackBack

Comments

The problem is, in a sui generis election such as this, it's hard to know who will actually turn out to vote.

How many of the Arnie voters are going to turn out? Will there initially be a huge line around the corner, but then everyone will disperse when the first voters come out and say that the special effects in the voting booth sucked?

Candidates with well-defined positions are more likely to pull a Nader. And in an election where there is an overwhelming urge to pull the Gallagher lever, 13% might be enough.

Posted by: pathos at September 10, 2024 09:59 PM