Donkeys and Elephants in the South

The CSM has a good piece entitled "GOP clout rises in South" which deals with both the elections yesterday and the Dean Confederate flag comment, and fits into the ongoing discussion here and elsewhere on partisan identification and southern voters.

I would say that this underscores a main component of why the South is becoming increasingly a Republican stronghold, and fits into my previous arguments concering the ideological predilections of many Southerns (and it isn't about simply about race, it's about values, indeed it is mainly about ideology):

Taken together, these events reflect the South's ongoing shift from a solidly Democratic region to one that is not only competitive for Republicans, but seems increasingly hostile to Democrats, with a rift over cultural issues from guns to abortion to affirmative action. Republicans now hold 8 governorships out of the 11 former confederate states.

[...]

In many ways, Democrats find themselves increasingly torn between liberal Northeastern and West Coast voters who tend to dominate the party, and Southerners they hope to woo back. Dean has come under fire from Sen. John Kerry for high ratings from the National Rifle Association in his years as governor of Vermont - a position that might boost Dean's profile in the South, but could hurt him elsewhere and in many early primary states.

In other words, Zell Miller has a point: the mainline Democratic Party does not connect well with the traditional values (largely linked to religious positions) that are dear to many Southern voters.

If the Democratic elite wish to continue to argue that it is just because all the racist rednecks switched, they will never be able to recapture the vote. And I would note, that people can be for "states' rights (i.e., federalism) and against affirmative action as rational, principled positions without racism being the motivation (and if you dismiss that statement out of hand, I would refer you to the first sentence in this paragraph).

And the following observation about Mississippi is astute (especially when you think about what Ralph Reed was able to do for Georgia Republicans):

In Mississippi in particular, analysts expect Gov.-elect Barbour to build up the GOP apparatus. "Barbour has been a master of organization" for the Republican Party nationally, says Black. "If Democrats think their situation is bad in Mississippi today, it's going to get worse."

Posted by Steven Taylor at November 5, 2024 09:15 PM | TrackBack