Speaking of Admiral Quixote's Roundtable, he has a nifty graphic on his site showing the breakdown of campaign money raised by all the candidates, including the President.
He also provides this useful link with the actual numbers.
Posted by Steven Taylor at November 20, 2024 02:48 PM | TrackBackLook at the cash in hand chart of the 2nd link. This is about as fortelling of any number I've seen to date. $73M for the pres. Coupled with a republican california, strong wins in the south, an economy that is slowly coming to life. Now add the fact that the president can make his Iraq situation look pretty good by bringing home troops starting in August '04 and I would say this is about the most secure reelection position I've seen in my life. I don't remember where Reagan & Mondale were in November of '83.
I'll make my prediction now. Unless something seriously unexpected happens to cripple this presidency, Bush will win against any Democratic challenger. Win big, I don't know yet. But he will win.
What are the possible unexpecteds?
It won't be anything from within. This administration is "obey first" "think second" so you don't expect a scandal.
It won't be Bush making some crack statement. He talks and listens to the American people too little to worry there.
Economic downturns or major economic scandal with a link to the prez or Cheney might have some consequence, but only if it involves Haliburton and in a major way.
I suppose, a military invasion by North Korea on South Korea and the US unable to respond because we're pinned down in Iraq is a possibility. Might show how his Iraq War was misguided. Related might be real terrorist threats against our troops. Something significant in Baghdad leaving 1000's dead. I shudder at the thought, but I suppose it is possible, if remote.
You have a strong anti-Bush sentiment in the youth , but that's unlikely to carry much weight with the fat-bottomed conservatives which will hand him the south & Texas.
Schwarzsnegger's bumbling in CA won't be apparent until well after the election. But he's got a lot of lock-step Bush-ites helping him, so he'll keep his mouth shut and use simple words. Basically Arnold won't hand CA to the democrats.
All-in-all, I'd say at this point in time, Bush is a shoe-in. Doesn't mean I'll vote for him though. :)
Posted by: Eric at November 20, 2024 04:59 PM