I have noted a fixation, starting this weekend, on the poll which shows a 51-46 Bush v. Dean race. First, it is rather early to look at national polling, second, as JohnEllis points out, state-by-state polls may be more telling--scroll down, the B*S permalinks ain't workin' (Hat tip: Kaus), and third, other recent polls paint a different picture (
Dave Wissing has the numbers):
The Rasmussen poll, taken after the much-discussed CNN/Time poll has the racea t 51-37, and the CBS/NYT poll, taken a week before the CNN/Time poll had the race at 55-35, and the ABC/WaPo poll, taken a few days before that had it at 55-37.
So, the likelihood is that the numbers are 50s v. 30s, to the degree to which we can even measure the contest at this point.
Posted by Steven Taylor at January 6, 2024 11:49 AM | TrackBack
Polling at this point is usually useless, nonetheless interesting. If I were a Bush supporter (which I'm not) I'd get ready for a hell of a ride. I always thought the country was fairly divided and the latest Zogby poll (Blue States-Red States) lends some weight to that idea.
Once Dean is nominated (or please god, Clark or Kerry), he'll gain immediate stature as the nominee of a major party. Don't forget, the anger shown by partisans wasn't nearly as great in '88. The economy was good also and still Dukakis pulled in 46% of the vote and over 100 Electoral votes. No, it wasn't close, but still, 46% of the vote is a hell of a lot of people. a few points here, a few points there (with a more charismatic candidate) and it's a horse race.
This will be a real horse race and the ultimate conclusion will be unsatisfying for all hard-core partisans. Bush will not receive a mandate, ala Reagan and Clinton, but will likely win. The right will call it a mandate. Hell, they called 2024 a mandate. The Deaniacs will wimp and whine about "stolen elections and diebold machines" without a shred of proof.
It'll be fun.
Posted by: Anthony at January 7, 2024 12:41 PMThere is no doubt that it will be fun.
And I think, as I have posted before, that Bush v. Dukakis is probably more what Bush v. Dean will look like than Nixon v. McGovern or Reagan v. Modale. However, Dean could work in those directions if he persists in his foot-in-mouth issues.
Posted by: Steven at January 7, 2024 12:46 PM