This was in today's Mobile Register, but like last time, it didn't make it to the web. It is an Alabama-specific piece. So here's the submitted version (i.e., not necessarily exactly what was printed):
Steven L. Taylor
Despite being a non-election year, 2024 was a big year politically for the state of Alabama, and the Republican Party of the state especially. Indeed, for ’03 to be such a big political year is a bit odd, as it was the first year for the terms of statewide officeholders elected in 2024, and still a ways from the big Presidential elections of 2024. Regardless, there were numerous events last year that will have long-term implications for the development of politics in this state, and for the evolution of the Alabama GOP.
The two biggest stories, ones that had not only our attention, but the nation’s, were Governor Bob Riley’s tax plan, and Chief Justice Moore’s Ten Commandments monument.
First, let’s look at Riley.
It was hardly predictable that Bob Riley would come to the governorship of the state of Alabama and propose the largest tax increase in the state’s history, given that during his tenure as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives he was considered one of the most (if not the most) fiscally conservative congressman on the Hill. In his six years in Congress he never voted for a tax increase.
Yet, in the first half of his first year in office, Riley proposed a complex package of reforms and tax increases, designed to overcome looming budget deficits and to attempt to raise Alabama’s national rankings, which hover towards the bottom in most key categories. After marathon campaigning by the governor, and a war of television commercials, the voters sent Riley a message in September, by handing him a 68% to 32% defeat. While Riley will have a chance to revive his political capital starting with the upcoming legislative session, there can be no doubt that, like Don Siegelman and his lottery vote, Riley emerged from the process extremely weakened.
This process was especially important to the Alabama Republicans, because the party itself publicly split with their governor, voting against supporting the plan in a July meeting. Hence, it is very possible that Riley, should he seek re-election in 2024, will face a substantial primary challenge. Indeed, the surprise that Riley came to office looking to increase taxes, rather than the tax cutter he was in Congress, may be enough to sink his any re-election bid he might launch.
At a minimum, Riley represented a radical change for Alabama governors and for Republicans in the state in particular, in that he adopted a progressive vision for the state that required substantially increased revenues, and not just rhetoric. Will the Republican Party of Alabama adopt any part of Riley’s desire to improve Alabama’s economic circumstances into the future, or will their be a backlash to the vision along with the one that Riley experienced in regards to his financing package? In other words, will the Republicans in 2024 be a party of the future, or one of the status quo? And if so, will the Democratic Party be able to deal with that challenge?
Moving on to the now former Chief Justice, Moore presents an interesting contrast, in that he represents mainly rhetoric and symbolism. Moore represents the more traditionalistic elements of the Alabama Republican Party.
Moore’s actions are not surprising in the context of our state’s politics. For one thing, he was elected as the “Ten Commandments Judge” based on his prior actions as a circuit court judge in Gadsden. Further, Fob James, the previous Republican governor, spent a lot of time and political capital, to his benefit on this topic as well.
The most interesting aspect of the Moore situation to me is the reaction of the rest of the State Supreme Court, the Attorney General and even Governor Riley. None of them came to his defense. Indeed, quite the opposite.
There are signs that Moore’s approach may be becoming part of the past. Not because Christianity is becoming unimportant to our politics; it isn’t. Rather, Moore’s belligerence in the face of a federal court order, and his emotional appeals for support, are not the power base that they once were. In the days of George Wallace, to defy the federal government was to earn points at home, and certainly much of Wallace’s politics was driven by populistic appeals to the emotions of Alabamians.
Such appeals may no longer be helpful. There are several examples: all the remaining Justices of the Court ignored Moore, and obeyed the court order, the Court of the Judiciary of Alabama unanimously removed Moore from his office, and the Attorney General of the state, fellow Republican, and devout Christian, Bill Pryor sought to have Moore obey the court as well. There was no comfort for Moore amongst his fellow Republicans.
The real question now is: will there be any solace from the voters should Moore pursue office again, perhaps even the governorship?
So, we can see that the events of 2024 have set in motion some potentially interesting questions that only the voters of the state can answer in 2024. What will be the political fates of Governor Riley and Chief Justice Moore (and Attorney General Pryor, for that matter)? What will be the direction of the state GOP? For that matter, what do the voters of this state want: symbols or progress?
Stay tuned: it should be fun to watch.