Some very intriguing news: Poll: Three-Way Tie for Top Democratic Spot in Iowa
The Democratic presidential race in Iowa is a virtual three-way tie between John Kerry, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt four days before the state's caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Thursday.In the latest rolling three-day poll, Kerry registered 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the poll's margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie.
Now, a close race normally aids turnout, especially amongst the intense supporters of a candidates. Since it appers to me that Dean has the most intense support, I think that this late-breaking poll that shows a tight race will be incentive for Deaniacs, who might have stayed home from the three-hour-ordeal that are the caucuses if Dean was running away with the thing, and cause them to show up.
The big loser in all this: Gephardt, who has a chance of coming in third, which would be utter disaster. Still, at the end of the day, I would think that Dean has intense supporters and the endorsements of AFSCME and SEIU (plus money and the Harkin endorsement), Gepahrdt has most of the rest of the unions, and Kerry has money. At the end of the day, it would seem that the likelihood is that Dean wins, Gepahardt comes in second, and Kerry third.
Update: this is today's entry in today's BELTWAY TRAFFIC JAM
I am a strong Edwards supporter and if DEAN gets the nomination, I will be voting for President Bush, albeit grudgingly. What some should take into account is that as intense and scary as Dean supporters ARE, so are those of us who absolutely HATE this man. Hate is not too strong of a word in this case, really.
With that said, here's my comments. Edwards and Kerry (surprisingly) have seen the fastest rise in the last 3-4 days. As long as Edwards gets in the top 3, that knocks out either Kerry or Gephardt whomever doesn't get top 3. Edwards has the least to lose not going top 3 here because he can win South Carolina. If Dean does not win first in Iowa and New Hampshire, his anti-war screaming will fall upon deaf ears in South Carolina and it opens the race up particularly for Kerry, Edwards, and Clark.
I think Gephardt HAS to win Iowa to even be a thought in this and he finishes third even, he's in major trouble. My prediction is that he finishes third or fourth and drops out after New Hampshire to back his old friend John Kerry.
So, here's my turn of events: John Kerry very slightly pulls out Iowa, then Dean is going to win second, Gephardt finishes in a tie for third with Edwards; In New Hampshire, Dean slightly pulls it out over Clark with Kerry in third, Edwards in 4th. This now eliminates 2 more from the race: Lieberman & Gephardt (unfortunately, they are my 3rd and 4th favorites after Edwards and Clark).
We get to South Carolina and despite his 3rd and 4th place finishes, I predict Edwards to win the state, Clark takes second with a toss up between Dean and Kerry for third. This will finally force the maniacs out of the race (Kucinich & Sharpton) who will sadly drop out AFTER Gephardt & Lieberman. (My prediction is that Joe and Dick end up both backing Kerry).
After South Carolina, I predict we are left with 4 men: Dean, Edwards, Clark, and Kerry.
To be honest, I really can't say after that who does what where because after South Carolina, I have no idea what order the other states are in. But here's the thing. The Midwest is up for grabs, the south will still favor and Edwards and Clark and the northeast will likely favor Dean & Kerry but Clark has a real chance to trump up there.
Here's what we do know: Of the 4 guys left, Kerry is the most organized, but Dean has the most intense people, while Edwards has the most positive vibes. That leaves Clark as the wild card. If I was going to predict, I would say whomever takes more in the south early between Edwards and Clark, effectively knocks the other one out. In the end, I am going for the upset and saying Edwards outlasts Clark in the south (he's not a true southerner and Edwards will be seen as Clinton-esque and not talking down to everyone like Gore);
By early March, it will be Dean & Kerry for sure still in it with either Clark or Edwards or maybe still both. That's what I am calling. I honestly can't predict after that because if the states get split up evenly, this thing could go to May!
But again, if it's Howard Dean in the end, Bush gets my vote so go John Edwards!
Posted by: Alex Ramati at January 15, 2024 02:31 PM