January 19, 2024

  • el
  • pt

    • A Few More Things I am Sure of (At Least as of Now)

  • Dean still has lots of money, so is far from done.

  • This is not even 1/50th of the delegates, so again, nothing is settled.

  • The anti-war message isn' as powerful as it was even a few weeks ago. That hurts Dean. I also think that it helps Bush, althought I cannot articulate a good argument for that position at this moment.

  • The Kerry win appears to be predicated on his ability to project a war-hero image and to appeal to the idea that he can lead the country in the current international climate. This came at Dean's expense. Again, I think this actually may demonstrate an underlying current that is good for Bush, insofar as if hardcore Democrats are concerned about that issue, so are swing voters, which has the likelihood of redounding in Bush's favor.

    Ok, enough instant analysis. I need to digest all of this (and I have to get up early in the morning, so it is time to wind down).

    Posted by Steven Taylor at January 19, 2024 09:41 PM | TrackBack
    • Comments

    Pre-caucus commentary from a reader of The Corner at NRO is actually the best post-caucus explanation I've read yet:

    "I now live in Minnesota but spent most of my life in Iowa and much of my family is still in the Hawkeye state. I was once a county delegate in the caucus system (Dole in ‘96) so I have a pretty good sense of how the system works.

    "Edwards has really pushed a nice guy image in recent weeks choosing to avoid the vicious infighting between frontrunners Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry. Edwards actually touts his positive campaign more so than any issue that he supports. While being a nice guy doesn’t inspire an enthusiastic base, it could help make Edwards the #2 choice of several caucus voters. Several of the 9 candidates certainly will not hit “viable candidate” status on the first round (Lieberman, Clark, Kucinich). Edwards could therefore be the big winner among caucus goers forced to make a second choice. In contrast, Dean’s abrasiveness may have pushed a lot of voters to have a love or hate opinion of him – his base loves him, supporters of other candidates are turned off by him. With the race between the 4 frontrunners being so close, the re-caucusing rounds will be critical."

    http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_01_18_corner-archive.asp#023093

    Posted by: Doug at January 19, 2024 10:16 PM
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