I will do a more fleshed-out version of this for the Toast-O-Meter later in the week, but here are some initial thoughts on how last night affect NH:
DEAN: He now has to win NH. Anything else, and his candidacy will be in serious jeopardy.
KERRY: Winning means coming in second. If he can't do at least that, then his Iowa momentum will be lost.
CLARK: Is now in trouble: winning for him means second place as well. Third will mean that the gains he has made in the last couple of weeks were for naught.
EDWARDS: While he goes into NH with low expectations, coming in fourth or fifth, and probably in the single digits, will take the bloom off of the Iowa rose. However, if he has even a respectable showing (by beating expectations just a tad), he can declare victory heading into the 3rd.
Lieberman: Barely on the radar screen.
Posted by Steven at January 20, 2024 08:15 AM | TrackBackSteven, I agree: if Dean doesn't win New Hampshire, he's going to turn from white bread to toast in a nanosecond. This is going to get wild.
Posted by: Eric Lindholm at January 20, 2024 10:12 AMI agree with you on Dean and Clark, but I still think Kerry has to win in NH to have a real chance at the nomination. The expectations now are that Kerry will win in NH. Remember, it is all expectations now. Edwards' next real test doesn't come until South Carolina, but I stil think he needs to beat Lieberman at a minimum to keep his momentum going. Lieberman is just playing out the string at this point.
Posted by: Dave Wissing at January 20, 2024 10:35 AMTwo initial thoughts:
First, Dean still has a ton of money - more than anyone else. I get the sense that he can lose New Hampshire (2nd) and remain viable for a long time.
Second, will Kerry do that well in the south? I think Edwards has the momentum going into New Hamsphire and South Carolina, as Clark and Kerry beat each other up in NH. And with Gephardt now out, he can become the candidate African-Americans rally around (Clyburn will be getting calls)...
Posted by: mark at January 20, 2024 10:44 AM