I'm thinking that the gay marriage issue is going to be even bigger this year than expected in terms of it being a campaign issue. The evoution of the issue as policy and politics is moving faster than I (and I think many others) anticipated.

I predicted on James' blog that this would be the central theme of the election. After admitting I was going out on a limb, I said this would overshadow WMD, Vietnam et al. I might be right the way things are going.

Ironically, those in favor of gay unions may be shooting themsevles in the foot for pushing the issue, as instead of coming out of this with a compromise position, they may end up mobiizing the anti- forces and end up with very little (at least in the short term).

You are absolutely correct, I mailed that thought to Andrew Sullivan who laughed at it. Apparently he never learned how to boil a frog.

It won't be the issue--the economy will be, followed closely by national security. But it has the potential to be the chief cultural issue in the campaign.

heh- I did also note on James' blog that I was getting too old and out of shape to be going out on limbs. You may be right- but it is mighty volatile.

Homosexuals are in an all or nothing game now, and I expect they know it. It may or may not have been wise to get into this position in the first place, though that's a much more complicated matter than it probably seems at first glance, but now that they're in this position I don't see as they have much choice save to run as fast and hard with it as they can.

There has been talk even here in ultra-liberal (if also terminally puritan) Massachusetts of a DOMA-style law or constitutional amendment for a few years now -- Jane Swift is really the only reason one didn't go before the voters and her actions were arguably illegal. Other states have been passing DOMA-style laws and constitutional amendments right and left. The supposed 'friend' of homosexuals, William Clinton, signed DOMA on the federal level. A DOMA-style federal constitutional amendment has been kicking around for a while now, albeit with less support than its proponents would like. There have been active efforts on multiple fronts for several years to see that there will *NEVER* be legal homosexual marriages and those efforts have been yielding successes in law. Given that, it's pretty hard to argue that if homosexuals just sit back and wait they'll get marriage or a pseudo-marriage eventually when laws are actively being passed to ensure that doesn't happen. In case no one has noticed, it's the homosexual's frog that is rapidly approaching the boiling point.

Now the SJC has handed homosexuals in this state everything they could have dreamed of and a whole lot more than they probably realistically expected. The Finneran/Romney alliance has so far failed to get the MA Con-Con to pass any of the DOMA variants they've put up (three of the five proposals have been voted down). Even if something passes when the Con-Con reconvenes, it's still a long ways from there to its actual passage. In May there is either going to be a constitutional crisis when Romney/Finneran decide to thwart the SJC, as has been threatened, or legal homosexual marriages are going to become a reality in this country for the first time ever. Likely, one way or the other, the latter, and as soon as that happens it changes the equation markedly.

Homosexuals quite rightly see that as something worth fighting for. What are they supposed to do? Go to the Con-Con and say "Oh we'll take a second class form of marriage, and thank you so much for it"? Doesn't make any sense and it wouldn't stop the other side from continuing to push more DOMA laws/amendments. The war is on, has been for quite a while, circumstances have handed them the only real opportunity they may get and they'd be stupid not to play for keeps. The other side sure as hell is going to.

I've often thought homosexual rights groups incredibly tactically stupid, often alienating potential supporters over minor stuff that doesn't matter. But this isn't minor and this does matter, and tactically I can see no smart move other than to go all out for it even if it ends up costing them some support. They've got literally nothing to lose -- assurances that somehow they'll get a pseudo-marriage right 'someday' if they do nothing are foolish in light of thirty-something states passing DOMA laws -- and everything to gain.

Myria

GREAT WEBSITE!!!! I spent the whole afternoon and part of an evening on here.There is just so much interesting stuff that you can't tear yourself away.I appreciate all the hard work that goes in to making a site this good.

Kevin

Buy www.i-directv.net this it is a wonderful addition to anyones home entertainment system.