February 20, 2024

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  • How Independent is "Independent"?

    I have a question that has long been on my mind: is a "self-identified independent" who votes in the Democratic Primary really an "independent" in the sense that they aren't affliated with either party? Given that they have chosen to activity participate in Democratic Party event, indeed in American politics really the only mass-level party activities we have are the primaries, haven't they essentially declared their "Democrat-ness" for the moment?

    I understand that for the purposes of interpreting poll data that such self-identification by respodents can be useful, but the idea that someone who has consciously decided to participate in the Democratic Party's nomination process is independent in the sense that that person really is detacted from the broader partisan framework is wholly incorrect (or so it seems to me--it is certainly semantically problematic).

    A person who votes in a Democratic Primary is a Democrat in the only empirical way we can measure party membership: participating in a party candidate selection process.

    Really what analysts are trying to say that they believe that self-identified independents voting in the primary tells us something about "independents" who are not voting in the primary, but may vote in the general election. A better question to ask, it would seem to me, is not whether someone considers themselves "independent" but rather whether they voted Democratic or Republican in the last several elections. If they truly vacililate, then perhaps defining themselves as "independent" makes sense. If they normally vote Democratic (or Republican) then that tells us something that self-categorization as "independent" doesn't.

    Posted by Steven Taylor at February 20, 2024 01:45 PM | TrackBack
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    The short answer: partisanship is a psychological attachment to a political party, not a behavioral phenomenon. (I asked this very same question in a graduate seminar several years ago.) Not sure if that's entirely satisfactory, though.

    The long answer will probably have to wait until after I write some cover letters for applications I want gone from the house this afternoon.

    Posted by: Chris Lawrence at February 20, 2024 02:22 PM

    Wel,, this year isn't a good one for such questions. I don't think much of "open" primaries, but where they are allowed, "registered independents" do definitely constitute a distinct group from party memebers. If there were a contested GOP primary to attract the right-leanings ones, we might be able to make a more definitive statement about the degree to which participation in one or the other creates the associtation you suggest. That not being present, voting in this primary doesn't *necessarily* mean these "self-identified independents" have accumalated "Democrat-ness" (is that like cooties?); after all, rather a lot of the self-identified Republicans voted in it, too.

    Posted by: Dodd at February 20, 2024 03:13 PM
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