Comments on: News of the Nine http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493 A rough draft of my thoughts... Mon, 08 May 2024 16:57:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1.2 by: Anonymous http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5251 Wed, 31 Dec 1969 17:59:59 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5251 ]]> by: JohnC http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5249 Wed, 31 Dec 1969 17:59:59 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5249 Just fantasizing. :) Just fantasizing. :)

]]> by: Steven http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5248 Wed, 31 Dec 1969 17:59:59 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5248 As a political scientist, I think that a convention fight would be a ton of fun. However, I wouldn't bank on it. While I can see a scenario that leads to one, I wouldn't count on it. The system as currently set up really mitigates against it. And while it is still early (the standard caveat), I am beginning to wonder how much of a race is really emerging. Dean has the energy and the money, Kerry looks like the walking wounded to me, and the rest are waaay in the background. And even if Kerry, Gepahrdt or Lieberman start to surge and get a real fight going with Dean, the nominee almost certainly will be known by mid-March. You will only get a convention fight if three of the candidates can capture significant geographical edges in the races (i.e., one wins a lot of the South, another a lot of the North and another a lot of in the West, etc. And they would have to <i>dominate</i> those states. More likely one or two with get momentum, others will drop out, money will flow to the top one or two and soon it will be just one. Without a long, long discourse, it is my opinion as one who studies electoral dynamics (and in no way as a partisan) that there will be no convention fight. Remember: the 2024 Rep primary process with Bush and McCain was supposedly a big fight, but it really was only truly competitive for a few weeks. As a political scientist, I think that a convention fight would be a ton of fun. However, I wouldn’t bank on it. While I can see a scenario that leads to one, I wouldn’t count on it. The system as currently set up really mitigates against it.

And while it is still early (the standard caveat), I am beginning to wonder how much of a race is really emerging. Dean has the energy and the money, Kerry looks like the walking wounded to me, and the rest are waaay in the background.

And even if Kerry, Gepahrdt or Lieberman start to surge and get a real fight going with Dean, the nominee almost certainly will be known by mid-March. You will only get a convention fight if three of the candidates can capture significant geographical edges in the races (i.e., one wins a lot of the South, another a lot of the North and another a lot of in the West, etc. And they would have to dominate those states.

More likely one or two with get momentum, others will drop out, money will flow to the top one or two and soon it will be just one.

Without a long, long discourse, it is my opinion as one who studies electoral dynamics (and in no way as a partisan) that there will be no convention fight.

Remember: the 2024 Rep primary process with Bush and McCain was supposedly a big fight, but it really was only truly competitive for a few weeks.

]]> by: JohnC http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5247 Wed, 31 Dec 1969 17:59:59 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=1493#comment-5247 It seems to me that we'll end up with a good, old fashioned fight at the convention. And I think this would be a <i>good</i> thing. There will be a huge amount of buzz around the whole thing, as it will be a spectacle not seen in recent times. Delegates fighting it out on the floor. Heated discussions in smoky rooms with worried looking aides pacing nervously outside. Touch n' go. And then a big "Come to Jesus" moment at the end. Democrats united to kick GW's ass out of the white house. It'll be great drama and pundits will eat it up because it'll make them rich off of commenting on the whole event. And meanwhile, back in boring land, George will be stuck with an increasingly uglier occupation that simply has no good solution to it. 30 meters of razor wire in every direction. It's going to be painful no matter what we do now. Having the Republican convention so closely tied to 9/11 in NYC is not going to work for them. Especially after the EPA fiasco regarding the WTC collapse. So, what a great contrast: 1) A scrappy, populist democratic process filled with drama 2) A boring, predestined choice in command of a chaotic occupation built on a WMD lie with a soldier dying every other day. It's like a Survivor episode. May still lose, but it's at least going to be a darn good fight. It seems to me that we’ll end up with a good, old fashioned fight at the convention. And I think this would be a good thing. There will be a huge amount of buzz around the whole thing, as it will be a spectacle not seen in recent times. Delegates fighting it out on the floor. Heated discussions in smoky rooms with worried looking aides pacing nervously outside.

Touch n’ go. And then a big “Come to Jesus” moment at the end. Democrats united to kick GW’s ass out of the white house.

It’ll be great drama and pundits will eat it up because it’ll make them rich off of commenting on the whole event.

And meanwhile, back in boring land, George will be stuck with an increasingly uglier occupation that simply has no good solution to it. 30 meters of razor wire in every direction. It’s going to be painful no matter what we do now.

Having the Republican convention so closely tied to 9/11 in NYC is not going to work for them. Especially after the EPA fiasco regarding the WTC collapse.

So, what a great contrast:

1) A scrappy, populist democratic process filled with drama

2) A boring, predestined choice in command of a chaotic occupation built on a WMD lie with a soldier dying every other day.

It’s like a Survivor episode.

May still lose, but it’s at least going to be a darn good fight.

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