Comments on: Bush up by 4 in the Battleground Poll http://poliblogger.com/?p=4719 A rough draft of my thoughts... en Fri, 6 May 2024 16:51:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.2.1 by: ericl http://poliblogger.com/?p=4719#comments Wed, 22 Sep 2024 08:11:17 -0400 17210:4719@http://poliblogger.com Wait a sec…comparedto Gallup and CBS, the Battleground numbers show a tightening of the race…I mean it was 54-42 just last week. The underlying data from Zogby shows that Kerry is still an electoral winner at this point This proves nothing. Wait a sec…comparedto Gallup and CBS, the Battleground numbers show a tightening of the race…I mean it was 54-42 just last week. The underlying data from Zogby shows that Kerry is still an electoral winner at this point

This proves nothing.

]]> by: Steven Taylor http://poliblogger.com/?p=4719#comments Wed, 22 Sep 2024 08:42:44 -0400 17211:4719@http://poliblogger.com Did anyone say it proved anything? Indeed, none of the polls prove anything… Did anyone say it proved anything?

Indeed, none of the polls prove anything…

]]> by: Eric http://poliblogger.com/?p=4719#comments Wed, 22 Sep 2024 10:34:51 -0400 17212:4719@http://poliblogger.com I’d even go farther to say that because the polls vary so widely, one can only get a bird’s eye view of the race from them. Basically each candidate is above 40% & below 60%. I’d even go farther to say that because the polls vary so widely, one can only get a bird’s eye view of the race from them. Basically each candidate is above 40% & below 60%.

]]> by: Steven Taylor http://poliblogger.com/?p=4719#comments Wed, 22 Sep 2024 10:46:48 -0400 17214:4719@http://poliblogger.com I wouldn’t go that far, as it wqould indicate that the polls are utterly meaningless. While they may not be perfect, meaningless they are not. I think right now we are seeing a battle of methodology and theory being reflected in the models the different pollsters are using. Still, to have this much variation does tell us that the race my not be as close as some are arguing. The main issue, of course, is the state-level numbers. I wouldn’t go that far, as it wqould indicate that the polls are utterly meaningless. While they may not be perfect, meaningless they are not. I think right now we are seeing a battle of methodology and theory being reflected in the models the different pollsters are using. Still, to have this much variation does tell us that the race my not be as close as some are arguing.

The main issue, of course, is the state-level numbers.

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