Comments on: Explaining the Polls (Or, Maybe Not) http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136 A rough draft of my thoughts... Mon, 08 May 2024 19:01:47 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1.2 by: Steven Taylor http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19704 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 22:00:53 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19704 But Paul, you are missing my point--the tracking poll is a three-day rolling average. But Paul, you are missing my point–the tracking poll is a three-day rolling average.

]]> by: Paul http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19703 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 21:43:42 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19703 " Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish. " Um doc- that was my point. ” Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish. ”

Um doc- that was my point.

]]> by: Paul http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19702 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 21:43:02 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19702 "Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish" ahem- Um doc- That was my point. maybe read <a href="http://wizbangblog.com/archives/004126.html">me</a> again. “Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish”

ahem- Um doc- That was my point. maybe read me again.

]]> by: The Glittering Eye http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19699 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 21:22:18 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19699 <strong>RCP trends</strong> I've been looking at the most recent set of poll compilations from Real Clear Politics. Clearly, the current trends are not particularly good for Kerry and he'll have to do something to change that. But I've been looking at something... RCP trends
I’ve been looking at the most recent set of poll compilations from Real Clear Politics. Clearly, the current trends are not particularly good for Kerry and he’ll have to do something to change that. But I’ve been looking at something…

]]> by: Steven Taylor http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19697 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 20:38:26 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19697 One theory is that generically speaking (i.e., not jsut this election) is that polling over weekends tends to pick up more Democrats than Republicans due to lifestyle issues--most specifically that because Reps are in the aggregate more affluent, they tend to be out of the house more on weekends. So the hypothesis goes, in any event. One theory is that generically speaking (i.e., not jsut this election) is that polling over weekends tends to pick up more Democrats than Republicans due to lifestyle issues–most specifically that because Reps are in the aggregate more affluent, they tend to be out of the house more on weekends. So the hypothesis goes, in any event.

]]> by: Dave Schuler http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19696 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 20:33:21 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19696 I completely agree with your margin of error point. But margin of error doesn't explain periodicity. Your point that tracking polls favor Kerry over the weekends is, of course, true. But I'm seeing if I can reason out why. And that's why I suggested the &#147;talking heads&#148; theory. I completely agree with your margin of error point. But margin of error doesn’t explain periodicity. Your point that tracking polls favor Kerry over the weekends is, of course, true. But I’m seeing if I can reason out why. And that’s why I suggested the “talking heads” theory.

]]> by: Paul http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19694 Sat, 30 Oct 2024 19:25:08 +0000 http://poliblogger.com/?p=5136#comment-19694 You have a point about the moe BUT since Kerry starting hammering Bush, we went DOWN 3 points, one point per day. That matches real life eg the storying crumbling. It would be a REAL hard sell to get me to believe that the moe is such that the story is really helping him and the graph should show him going up one point per day. In another note, I have not looked yet and I don't know if it is up but the WaPo tracking poll might give us the first look at "the bin laden effect." You have a point about the moe BUT since Kerry starting hammering Bush, we went DOWN 3 points, one point per day. That matches real life eg the storying crumbling.

It would be a REAL hard sell to get me to believe that the moe is such that the story is really helping him and the graph should show him going up one point per day.

In another note, I have not looked yet and I don’t know if it is up but the WaPo tracking poll might give us the first look at “the bin laden effect.”

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