PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts


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  1. I don’t see Ortega as having much chance. He is unlikely to make it to 40%. He might make 35%, but I would expect it to be closer than 35-30 in that case. (It would almost have to be.)

    The other main candidate is Jarquin, the successor to the deceased candidate of the MRS, Lewites. Given that the MRS is a split from the Sandinistas, and that it split because its members saw Ortega for what he is–a petty dictator who hijacked the Sandinista movement for personal gain–I highly doubt that many of their voters would prefer Ortega over Montealegre. Most likely they would sit out the runoff, which would be good enough for Mr. Happy Mountain.

    boz has a slightly different take from mine.

    Comment by Matthew Shugart — Thursday, August 31, 2006 @ 6:15 pm

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