PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts


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  1. What’s interesting isn’t that 49% of those polled support her; but that so many registered and likely voters absolutely can’t stand her. It’s not a case of 51% of the country being undecided and potentially willing to vote for her.

    Comment by Max Lybbert — Tuesday, October 30, 2007 @ 4:32 pm

  2. True: the argument is that high negatives are hard to overcome. All well and good, but the notion that it would be impossible to budge some of those folks is not well founded. Further, even if that it is the case, there is no guarantee that the 51% will all vote Republican. Additionally, as I noted in the previous post, the issue of whether these voters are concentrated in Red states anyway is also of issue.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Tuesday, October 30, 2007 @ 5:15 pm

  3. True as well. The other issue is whether the 49% will vote. But it does seem odd for a political party to nominate somebody knowing that she will only ever be able to get 49% of the vote.

    Talk about Rovian politics, …

    Comment by Max Lybbert — Wednesday, October 31, 2007 @ 7:49 am

  4. Part of my point is that I am unconvinced that she has an impenetrable 49% ceiling.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Wednesday, October 31, 2007 @ 7:57 am

  5. I agree that it’s absurd that Clinton can’t bust the 50% ceiling. I also agree that the issue is not her positives but her negatives.

    We also don’t know who the Republican nominee will be. Whomever it is, they are likely to be viewed more unfavorably by some of the same people that view Hillary unfavorably. Enough to push her over, likely.

    She is the most likely next president of the United States, but nonetheless it might make for a closer race than some hope/fear.

    Comment by R. Alex — Wednesday, October 31, 2007 @ 8:20 am

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