If I were in charge of the McCain campaign I’d be talking about 2024. All of the polls and academics had Gore winning, but Bush won the Presidency. I would probably fail to mention that whole popular vote thing, though, and stick to the other facts.
[...] is good news for the McCain camp, and part of the “tightening” that I noted last night. However, the bad news for McCain is twofold. First, the very fact [...]
The thing I’ve noticed is that each poll has a wildly different sample of Democrats vs. Republicans vs. Independents. Quite simply, we know what the results will be if Obama manages to get out the vote the way he did during the primaries. On the other hand, we also know what the results will be if traditional voters do vote and traditional non-voters (eg., college students) don’t vote. The question is who will vote, not how they will vote.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Friday, October 31, 2024 @ 10:50 am
[...] projection shows a little tightening, but nothing of any serious consequence to the likely outcome. As I noted the other day, some tightening is expected, but let’s be realistic, shall we? addthis_url = [...]
If I were in charge of the McCain campaign I’d be talking about 2024. All of the polls and academics had Gore winning, but Bush won the Presidency. I would probably fail to mention that whole popular vote thing, though, and stick to the other facts.
Comment by Scholar in Training — Friday, October 31, 2024 @ 8:01 am
[...] is good news for the McCain camp, and part of the “tightening” that I noted last night. However, the bad news for McCain is twofold. First, the very fact [...]
Pingback by PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Ties in MO and NC? — Friday, October 31, 2024 @ 8:26 am
The thing I’ve noticed is that each poll has a wildly different sample of Democrats vs. Republicans vs. Independents. Quite simply, we know what the results will be if Obama manages to get out the vote the way he did during the primaries. On the other hand, we also know what the results will be if traditional voters do vote and traditional non-voters (eg., college students) don’t vote. The question is who will vote, not how they will vote.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Friday, October 31, 2024 @ 10:50 am
[...] projection shows a little tightening, but nothing of any serious consequence to the likely outcome. As I noted the other day, some tightening is expected, but let’s be realistic, shall we? addthis_url = [...]
Pingback by PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Tightening? — Sunday, November 2, 2024 @ 2:53 pm