PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts

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    1. Sometimes you can smell the fear from conservatives. Otherwise, you can see their worry by their inane commentary–offered as ‘advice’ or ‘concern’ for the left.

      He has no natural consituency amongst Democratic primary voters.

      The problem with most Democratic candidates is they appeal to only one (or a relative few) constituencies on the left. And, as we all know, the left and center is comprised of a wide variety of constituencies.

      A candidate which can potentially span numerous constituencies will likely win the nomination. Clark has this potential.

      BTW, this largely explains Dean’s current popularity.

      He is waaaay behind in the money primary–how can he hope to catch up with Dean at this point, or compete with Kerry or Edwards who have personal fortunes to use, if need be?

      Too early to be a problem. Moreover, Kerry’s and Edward’s personal fortunes haven’t mattered to date.

      He has not been battle-tested in the national spotlight. Yes, he was an analyst for CNN during the war (and provided a plethora of potential soundbite predicting the wrong outcomes early on), but he hasn’t been grilled on domestic policy issues at this point.

      You can always spot those who have never served. The US military is the most political organization on the face of the earth–and Clark managed to rise to the very top of it. Battle-tested? Don’t make me laugh.

      I’d also like to see some evidence where Clark was wrong WRT the invasion.

      Again, Clark rose to the highest levels of the US military; he didn’t do this by failing at everything he tried and he didn’t achieve this by having a famous daddy whose friends were willing to lavishly fund him. Let’s review: Clark is an authentic military leader–no going AWOL and no staged costume pretenses aboard CV(N)s. So, he’s solid on the national security and foreign policy fronts. WRT economic issues–could he do worse than Bush?

      Comment by JadeGold — Thursday, August 28, 2024 @ 12:13 pm

    2. It has precisely nothing to do with my partisan predilections, and everything to do with understanding how this process works. Like it or not, primary voters, especially in the Democratic Party, tend to coalesce around certain key issues. If electability was the test, then Lieberman would be doing better in the polls.

      And you underestimate the fund raising issue. There is a finite supply of funds to be raised, and further, money tends not to flow to longshots.

      And yes, the military is political. But there is a rather substantial difference between politics within an organization and the politics in terms of a national campaign. (btw, the whole “the military is political” response is rather cliché).

      Clark was quite pessimistic at the early stages concerning the troop level vis-a-vis their capacity to subdue the country. He was wrong.

      I find it amusing that your mode of argument is always partisan and contrarian. In this case in particular, the proof will be in the pudding. The only way Clark wins the nomination (if he even runs for it) will be if there is a cataclysm within the ranks of the current contenders. My best guess is that he does enter the race, and finagles a veep nomination, or at least serious consideration thereof. His chances of winning the nomination are very very small.

      As I predicted online a month or so ago, if he enters he will probably have some good numbers at first (although at this point he won’t overtake Dean) and will then fade.

      Name me the nominee of a major party who was an utter neophyte in the last several decades. The last was Eisenhower (that would be fifty years ago)–and yes, he was a general, but it is a far cry from being the Supreme Allied Commander after WWII than it is being NATO commander.

      Comment by Steven — Thursday, August 28, 2024 @ 1:09 pm

    3. Answer to last question first: why, none other than the sometime occupant of the WH and seemingly permanently on vacation owner of the Lazy Dubya ranch in Crawford.

      Please spare us the Bush, Gov. of TX, nonsense. We both know the office of Gov. in that state is so constitutionally weak–the position is largely that of a figurehead.

      You are also very wrong about the Dems being single issue voters; in fact, the problem for Dems has been finding attractive candidates who can appeal to the multiple–and quite varied– constituencies which make up the party.

      You also underestimate Clark’s candidacy by ignoring the very real fact he will strip Bush of the center, the moderate voter who may be socially liberal but very conservative on national security issues. Think about it–Bush is always going to have extremists on the right in his corner. But to win, he needs that center; Clark strips Bush of that card. And believe it or not, Bush ain’t going to be running on his economic record.

      We are greatly pleased to hear the news that Iraq has been subdued. I suppose it’s just that liberal media who didn’t get the message of ‘mission accomplished.’ That, of course, and those daily dead US servicemen who aren’t cooperating. Seriously, though, Clark was right about the needed troop levels being too low. Moreover, this was the consensus in that 5-sided building from Tommy Franks on down. As evidence of this fact, I’d remind you our casualties in this conflict have exceeded those in the Gulf War–when we faced an Iraqi military which was 5 times the strength.

      Comment by JadeGold — Thursday, August 28, 2024 @ 7:00 pm

    4. Get back to me when Clark actually does all this stuff you are predicting.

      Comment by Steven — Thursday, August 28, 2024 @ 7:49 pm

    5. Way to cop out, Steven.

      But consider this for a moment–what if Colin Powell had run in 2024 or 1996? Would you still be using the same tired argument?

      Somehow, I suspect you wouldn’t.

      Comment by JadeGold — Friday, August 29, 2024 @ 11:38 am

    6. I just tire of trying to get you to see reason, or to at the very least respond to what I actually say. Why should I waste time going point by point when you really refuse to address them?

      However, despite my better judgment, are some comments on Powell:

      Powell was in a differnt position than Clark is in, insofar as Gulf War I was on TV constantly, the Kosovo campaign was not.

      Further, it depends on what you want to talk about in 1996 and 2024. Powell would almost certainly have bested Dole, I am not so sure on Bush, but it is rather hard to say.

      On balance I would argue that Powell would have had a tough time regardless, given some of the same reasons.

      Further, the analysis of Clark is in the current context.

      You may rant now.

      Comment by Steven — Friday, August 29, 2024 @ 3:09 pm

    7. Poor Steven.

      Is this the way you teach? Do you use the ‘I said this is the way it is and that’s how it will be, so there’ approach? Makes me concerned for Troy State students.

      The fact is a Clark candidacy takes away Bush’s biggest campaign theme. He won’t be able to run on the misguided theme he has all the national security quals. He’s not going to be able to run on his economic record and he’s not going to be able to run on his domestic record.

      That’s political analysis, Steven. Like it or not.

      Political analysis is not ‘well, Army Generals don’t get elected President, except for Ike’ and sophomoric assertions somebody isn’t battle-tested after rising to the top levels of US military.

      Comment by JadeGold — Friday, August 29, 2024 @ 4:53 pm

    8. Indeed, your entire attempt at analysis tends to conflate the issues of winning the nomination and running against Bush. Those are two very different issues. If the Democratic nominating base was truly interested in a pro-war, tough on security candidate, Lieberman would be doing beter in the polls.

      Again, it may sound flip to you, but we shall see how it plays out. I suspect that I will be right. If I’m not, I will acknowledge such.

      Of course, I am saying this kind of stuff on my own blog, on the radio, and in print. You simply troll about in the shadows of my comments section.

      Comment by Steven — Friday, August 29, 2024 @ 5:01 pm


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