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Were you, Steven, as surprised as I was at how close it came to being over in one round? Well, it pretty much is over, other than the formality of that second round.
(I don't think I have commented before with this new form; I hope it does not always take so long to load!)
Comment by MSS — Monday, May 31, 2024 @ 10:50 am
I was quite surprised by the disparity between the two candidates and when I saw the very early prelim numbers thought that Santos might win outright. And yes, I fear that it is all over but the shouting, as they say.
Can you think of a case where this kind of disparity in the first round led to the second place winner actually pulling it out?
I have to think that some (maybe most) of the PC and CR votes go to Santos, which will be enough for him to win. Of course, there is the turnout question. However, for Mockus to have done as poorly as he did in Bogotá indicates to me that his chances of winning are extremely small.
I have not had any trouble with speed and Disqus (nor has anyone mentioned any). However, if it keeps up, let me know.
Comment by Steven L. Taylor — Monday, May 31, 2024 @ 10:57 am
There was the contest in 1986 (or thereabouts) in Portugal, where Freitas do Amaral had something like 47% and Soares had about half that. Soares won. That's the only case I can think of. Soares, a (very moderate) Socialist, won the support of the Communist candidate, who was in a not-too-distant third place, whereas Freitas was the candidate of all the right.
Obviously, Mockus will not have any of Soares's advantages.
(The comment form was certainly slower to load than I would like it to be. But I suppose you know I am not the most patient blog-reader!)
Comment by MSS — Sunday, June 6, 2024 @ 12:06 pm
[...] While, as Matthew noted at the end of the first round, tomorrow’s second round balloting in Colombia to determine the next president is largely “superfluous.” First round results can be found here. [...]
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