Comments for PoliBlog A Rough Draft of my Thoughts Fri, 14 Feb 2014 08:43:50 +0000 hourly 1 Comment on The USA v. the FARC by KP KP Fri, 14 Feb 2014 08:43:50 +0000 It is interesting to put the U.S. in perspective, that September 2001 would probably get a raised eyebrow if in Colombia to the effect that “hmm, September was a little higher than usual.”

The collateral deaths from a 500 pound PGM are nauseating. Yes, it may hit the exact grid reference intended, but ascertaining both presence before and confirmation after requires additional assets. How exactly is this supposed to bring the FARC into the political process? This is the kind of thing that results in sleeper cell dormancies and new recruits from relatives. The FARC eventually has little choice but to join the process, or be exterminated (which it seems happens anyway) and must rely on a Manchurian candidate to ensure survival of the theologies, or go out i a blaze of glory with an act of increased devastation.

Something funny about the 6km helicopter insertion. Have you ever spent the night in a jungle? You know, where you can hear a twig snap 100 yards away? Jungles aren’t quiet like walking down a dirt road in Tikrit, or even trekking over the hills outside Qalat. The most telling sign that something changed in the jungle is when everything gets quiet. When you sit still for long enough, all the fauna start making the night noises again, and when you move, they all shut up.

What is a helicopter 6km away with a 3 hour foot patrol to target through jungle in the night? Loud. Not only does every person within about 20km of the flight path hear it traveling overhead, the heliports would logically be watched. The whole, call me if you see anything leave at night and you earn $50. Fail to call me and I decapitate your wife thing.

It is nearly inconceivable that a helo insertion would work for this with only a 6km offset. I would put smart money on expecting failure to justify testing PGM area weapons for efficacy to shift fire to Pakistan.

Comment on Iran, Hezbollah and Latin America? by KP KP Fri, 14 Feb 2014 08:14:06 +0000 I find the nexus between Iran and Hezbollah much stronger with the previous administration (Iran’s), and given Hezbollah’s diversification into the cocaine globalization trade with the U.S., it would appear that Iran’s ability to influence Hezbollah has declined as a financier of anti-Israeli activities. While I would not contend that it is even improbable that Hezbollah could be recruiting young, poverty stricken Islamists (much in the way that the Tamil kidnapped impoverished Sri Lank children for a 10-year indoctrination program), it begs the question, “why bother?” Surely there are plenty of impoverished disenfranchised youth in, oh, say the West Bank that are tired of attack helicopters responding to them throwing rocks at Israeli occupation. You simply would not have to go to nearly as much trouble to use regional labor, and export your labor factor internationally to get the nefarious work done.

I suspect Hezbollah, having moved toward fully accepting the political process (reminds me of the Philippines – where the U.S. claimed victory over the “insurgents” through a hearts and minds campaign that saw every insurgent issue given in to, and their leader walking out of the woods with the group becoming a political party) has found the cocaine trade with the U.S. more lucrative than fighting Israel, although as a political platform, anti-occupation has to rank high on the posters.

If the military elite in the U.S. can’t find a threat, what sort of job security is there these days?

Comment on Understanding History: The Argentine Military Regime by Barry Barry Fri, 05 Apr 2013 14:23:48 +0000 Or, Eric Son of Eric is sincere.

Comment on PoliBlog: The Return by gevin shaw gevin shaw Thu, 21 Mar 2013 15:06:18 +0000 Clearing out my url-marks, I am glad to find you’ve returned to PoliBlog instead of my having to delete that one. Nice to see you back in this quiet little corner of the interwebs.

Comment on Reflections on the Panama Canal by Reflections on the Panama Canal Reflections on the Panama Canal Tue, 12 Mar 2013 15:22:35 +0000 [...] Posted at both OTB and PoliBlog. [...]

Comment on Ugh by r.taylor r.taylor Tue, 19 Feb 2013 15:24:05 +0000 Hi Dr. Taylor,
I’m sure you don’t remember me (I took a Latin America online class with You); anyway, I was very impressed with your teaching style and have learned a lot. I’m really glad I stumbled upon your weblog so I can continue to benefit from your great mind.
Btw, things will get fixed. One way or another. And as a professional procrastinator I have one little kernel of wisdom: “sometimes, if you wait long enough to start a task, things will eventually take care of themselves”
It doesn’t always work, but sometimes it does :)