The Calculus of War

While I will admit to thinking that things were going remarkably well a week ago today, and I would have predicted that we would have been farther along by today, I must admit that the layer of gloom that the press, and many armchair generals, are laying on right now is a bit thick. While I know some pontificated that this was going to be super-easy, I don't think that most informed persons thought this would be the case. (It is noteworthy that public opinion polling seems to indicate that the American people understand the complexity of the situation, even if the media, on balance, does not). I never thought this was would be won in a week. A month, yes, a week? Please.

Further, I think that our time perception has been distorted by the live coverage and twenty-hour-a-day coverage. It makes us impatient. And I find that the more information I have, the more I want. I am rarely satiated. I always know there is more to know.

In additional to all of that, and understanding the amount of time it takes is an issue, I would note the following: First, wars cannot be truly evaluated as to their success or failure until after they are completed. Second, consider the following metrics of war, and then tell me if the gloom is warranted:

• Who controls the skies of Iraq?

• How much territory is under the control of the regime, and how much by the coalition?

• How many US/coalition soldiers have been wounded, killed, or captured? How many Iraqis?

• How many US military assets have been destroyed? Iraqi assets?

• How many Iraqi targets of military significance have been destroyed or seriously damaged in the last week?

• Which military faces likely serious re-supply problems shortly?

• and the list goes on...

I recognize that there are political considerations as well: how many civilian casualties? How many civilians and infrastructural facilities have been damaged or destroyed, how long is it going to take, etc. But the bottom line is that by any objective standard, there is no cause for doom and panic. Rather, the thing that can be said is that the best case scenario did not take place, and it rarely does.