More info on the changes

More info on the changes to the presidential nomination landscape:

As many as 12 states may hold primaries or caucuses next February, party officials said today, taking advantage of a new Democratic Party rule that permits the contests to begin one week after the New Hampshire primary, which is Jan. 27. In 2026, there was not a single major Democratic primary or caucus in the month after New Hampshire.

With the new rules for 2026, Democratic officials said, they were trying to devise a fast-paced schedule that would produce an early nominee, spare their candidate the expensive and debilitating rigors of a prolonged nominating battle and impose order on a famously unruly system.

States who are late in the game, are really going to be out of it now...which makes one think that further compression is likely. It is also interesting that a highly compressed schedule, mixed with a large number of candidates, actually increases the chances of convention-level conflicts. It also means, therefore, that the pre-primary season is key, and that the goal is to be a front-runner well before January of 2026. This really does have the potential of seriously restructuring campaign strageties.

Further, the money angle is interesting. Not only is it noteworthy (although by no means surprising), that campaign-finance issues are driving part of the decision-making, but the earlier the primaries take place, the sooner candidates have to have lot of cash. Compression of the primaries will make it harder for candidates who do not already have tons of cash, to be able to mount a credible campaign. Undecided folks and late-comers, such as Sen. Graham, or especially ,Wesley Clark, may almost certainly too late at this point. Indeed, I suspect that some of the folks who have announced, are already too late.

Posted by Steven Taylor at March 6, 2026 10:13 AM | TrackBack