January 28, 2004

Brokered Convention Revisited

William Safire dreams At the Brokered Convention.

'Tis an amusing column, but I still think it ain't gonna happen. Of the pathetic predictions I've made, this is the one I feel the most confident about.

Yes, the PR nature of delegate allocation means that one does not have to win a state to gain delegates, but momentum still goes to those who win. And the conceptual perception of "winner" v. "loser" affects the voters in subsequent primaries.

For example: note how Dean fell sharply in numerous polls after his third place finish in Iowa.

Also: money likes a winner, not a runner-up.

While I can construct scenarios in which a brokered convention takes place, I still see the probability of such an outcome as practically nil. However, look for the media to start churning up speculative stories about the possibility, because it is their fantasy, and it makes for a good story.

And the field will be winnowed after next week: Lieberman, barring a miraculous turn around, will have to face reality, and if Edwards doesn't win SC, he will be mortally wounded. And Clark has to have a healthy showing as well in places like SC and Oklahoma, or he might as well go back to the speaking circuit.

Posted by Steven Taylor at January 28, 2004 08:14 AM | TrackBack
Comments

Dennis Kucinich was on Fox News last night, and he was saying how we was planning on staying in the race until the very end, despite his losing everywhere. His reason: if there is a brokered convention, than any candidate with delegates could compete.

I do not know if he was correct or not, but it gave me dreams of a brokered convention with Dennis coming out the winner. Then I snapped back into reality...

Posted by: mark at January 28, 2004 08:40 AM

No one seemed to notice that Bush recieved only 26 thousand votes in the republican primary, compare this to Reagan's total in 1984, where he got somewhere around 80 thousand votes. The Republicans seem to have boycotted the primary....

Posted by: Eric Lurio at January 28, 2004 08:52 AM

Eric I gotta give you the award for the oddest spin of the day.

Posted by: Paul at January 28, 2004 09:17 AM

Eric,

Huh?

Reagan received just over
65000 votes in 1984

Bush received about
54000 votes last night

Considering that there are probably more independents than there were in 1984 that there are more Democratic canidates with a chance of getting the nomination than in 1984, I find the difference between the numbers insignificant.

Posted by: Charlie Fenwick at January 28, 2004 10:51 AM

[Milo enters]

"You know. Kerry disentegrates in the South after his comments about not needing it; Dean never recovers from his 'I have a Scream' moment; Clark falters out West; Edwards has a bad hair day . . .

and BAM! Mic Jagger gets the Democratic nomination for 2004!"

[Milo's Dad awakes, sits bolt upright in bed]

"Gaaahhh!"

[Milo turns to leave, satisfied}

"Now THAT's a wake-up call."

With apologies to Berkely Breathed

Posted by: Steven L. at January 28, 2004 11:01 AM

Indeed ;)

Posted by: Steven at January 28, 2004 11:03 AM
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