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You have a point about the moe BUT since Kerry starting hammering Bush, we went DOWN 3 points, one point per day. That matches real life eg the storying crumbling.
It would be a REAL hard sell to get me to believe that the moe is such that the story is really helping him and the graph should show him going up one point per day.
In another note, I have not looked yet and I don’t know if it is up but the WaPo tracking poll might give us the first look at “the bin laden effect.”
Comment by Paul — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 2:25 pm
I completely agree with your margin of error point. But margin of error doesn’t explain periodicity. Your point that tracking polls favor Kerry over the weekends is, of course, true. But I’m seeing if I can reason out why. And that’s why I suggested the “talking heads” theory.
Comment by Dave Schuler — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 3:33 pm
One theory is that generically speaking (i.e., not jsut this election) is that polling over weekends tends to pick up more Democrats than Republicans due to lifestyle issues–most specifically that because Reps are in the aggregate more affluent, they tend to be out of the house more on weekends. So the hypothesis goes, in any event.
Comment by Steven Taylor — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 3:38 pm
RCP trends
I’ve been looking at the most recent set of poll compilations from Real Clear Politics. Clearly, the current trends are not particularly good for Kerry and he’ll have to do something to change that. But I’ve been looking at something…
Trackback by The Glittering Eye — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 4:22 pm
“Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish”
ahem- Um doc- That was my point. maybe read me again.
Comment by Paul — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 4:43 pm
” Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish. ”
Um doc- that was my point.
Comment by Paul — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 4:43 pm
But Paul, you are missing my point–the tracking poll is a three-day rolling average.
Comment by Steven Taylor — Saturday, October 30, 2024 @ 5:00 pm