Polls and the ReCAL

Dr. David Hill, of, oddly enough. The Hill has some interesting analysis of both the CA recall. And, like I've said, toast:

Some recent polls have suggested that California Gov. Gray Davis (D) may be making progress in his bid to stymie a recall vote. Don’t believe it. Davis is toast.

More importantly, I fully agree with this analysis (indeed, I pointed this out a while back):

The more prescient poll was the one taken last month by the Field organization that had 76 percent of registered California voters saying the state is on the wrong track.

Because Davis offers no credible prospects for real change from the sorry status quo in his state, voters are going to send him packing.

Elections are almost always about a choice between maintaining the status quo or embracing change. That's why the traditional "right direction" or "wrong track" question offered by most political pollsters provides such insight into any incumbent's reelection prospects. Typically, strong, "wrong track" sentiment signals an incumbent's defeat.

Source: Ease with risk will help Bush win