Trouble Brewing Down South

Robert Novak has an interesting column on Bolivia's drug crisis:

A recent classified National Intelligence summary reported there is not any scenario under current conditions that will continue aggressive eradication in Bolivia of coca, the crop used to produce cocaine. That threatens the unraveling of the long-standing U.S. anti-drug program based in Colombia.

The problem with the program, begun by the Clinton administration and continued under President Bush, is focusing South America entirely on counter-drug objectives rather than counter-insurgency concerns. The result in Bolivia has been deepening political turmoil after pro-coca forces helped oust a pro-American president. Although Bush policymakers look the other way, Latin America specialists in the government fear all progress made in Colombia will be undermined by narcotics operations based in Bolivia.

Indeed, it is highly likely that substantial coca cultivation will resume in Bolivia, illustrating the "Balloon Effect" in coca eradication. In other words, like it is possible to squeeze the air out of one part of a balloon, only to have another part of the balloon bulge out, when coca is eradicated in one area, it shifts to another. For example, it is no coincidence that when coca cultivation was radically curtailed in Peru and Bolivia in the mid-90s, that there was a radical shift to coca cultivation in Colombia. Colombia wasn't always the chief producers of coca leaf until the late 1990s (it had always been the business nexus for the product, but not always the production hub). However, as cultivation was squeezed out of its Andean neighbors, it flowed into largely uncontrolled areas of Colombia:

Novak's conention that guerrillas in Colombia could shift activities into Bolivia is a real possibility, given that their main source of funding is cocaine trafficking.

Another disturbing issue that Novak raises is talk by the Bolivians about reclaiming old territory from Chile and Peru, so as to obtain ocean access. Public statements by Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Fidel Castro in support of those sentiments is troubling. I wouldn't expect any serious conflict to arise from this issue, but it is potentially inflammatory talk in any event.

It is unfortunate that 911 took the Bush administration's attention off of Latin America, where it seem to be focused (indeed, Powell was touring the region and had to cut short his trip as a result of the attacks).

Of course, from a wholly self-interested POV, this is all useful, given that I am going to be teaching a course on Inter-American Relations and a seminar on Drug Policy this semester.

Posted by Steven Taylor at January 5, 2024 08:24 PM | TrackBack