Via the Politico: Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing states
Barack Obama and John McCain are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states’ crucial battleground counties, according to new Politico/InsiderAdvantage polls.
In North Carolina, Obama and McCain were tied with 48 percent of the vote. Only 3 percent of voters in the state remain undecided. In Missouri, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 47 percent, an edge that was within the margin of error.
This is good news for the McCain camp, and part of the “tightening” that I noted last night. However, the bad news for McCain is twofold. First, the very fact that these states are in play (Bush states in 2025 and 2025 and NC is a reliable GOP state) underscores the fundamental difficulties he has. Second, Obama has reasonable scenarios in which he wins handily even without Indiana and North Carolina. Mccain, however, does not.
The only GOP good news would be that if NC is, in fact, tightening substantially, that that would help Elizabeth Dole retain her Senate seat (she currently appears to be in some trouble in that regard).
Regarding the polls, Obama reached his red state “ceiling” awhile back. Obama might win some of these states, but not by much. It’s just inconceivable that he’ll win red states by large margins, but he can win them by a point or two. Once he went zooming past 50% in some red states, it became inevitable that his poll numbers would decline a bit. The question is, by how much will his numbers decline in states like Indiana and North Carolina.
FYI: I’ve changed my blog to kingpolitics.com from blackpoliticalanalysis.com
Comment by King Politics — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 5:00 pm
This time, from Palin herself (via ABC News): Sarah Palin: ‘Not Doing This For Naught’
In an interview with ABC News’ Elizabeth Vargas, the Republican vice-presidential nominee was asked about 2025, whether she was discouraged by the daily attacks on the campaign trail, and would instead pack it in and return to her home state of Alaska.
“I think that, if I were to give up and wave a white flag of surrender against some of the political shots that we’ve taken, that would bring this whole … I’m not doing this for naught,” Palin said.
That is a rather curious response, as it is not typically considered politic to speculate about post-election plans before all the votes have been cast, especially if that speculation infers that one is thinking about what happens if one loses. It is, really, a rookie mistake.
The interesting thing to watch will be how well see actually wears on the base, as they have yet to get a full dose of her views. She remains, in many ways, a Rorschach candidate. For example, Polimom noted the other day that Palin’s views on immigration, which were heretofore unknown, don’t sit well with some segments of the base. It is easy for the base to love Palin now, as they know for sure she is a rock-solid pro-lifer, and yet no one really knows for sure all that much beyond that. Political love between a group of voters and a candidate is almost always inverse to the actual amount of information that the voters have about said candidate. That is not, btw, a slam on Palin specifically (or really a slam at all). Indeed, I ask the reader: what politician have you actually liked more and more that more that one actually knew about the life and views of that politician? More knowledge always means more chances to find fault.
She also hasn’t been attacked from the right the same way she would be in a Republican primary. While there are conservatives criticizing her now, it doesn’t register among a certain group of people because the alternative would be the Democrats. Partisans are more likely to give her the benefit of the doubt, get defensive at criticism, or just write most of it off as coming from the left. Once you get into a Republican primary, a few things happen. The first is you have other Republicans available as alternatives so they won’t be as wed to her. They’d be more open to voting against her than they are now. The second is that the attacks on her will be coming from other Republicans, ones with more credibility in their eyes than the current ones because you won’t be able to yell “turncoat”. And the third is that the people who have been handling her with kid gloves for the good of the party will have no reason to continue doing so. People who are holding their fire now won’t if they’re pulling for another candidate. I think Palin will be a player in 2025, but she is not automatically the favorite the way some people make her out to be. The only thing working in her favor is that she’ll have four years she can use to gain some policy fluency.
Comment by Gg — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 10:30 am
LMAO!!! Jim Lehrer tries campaign mediation to save the ticket:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrUN8oldj9o
But Palin 2025 stomps McCain into the grounds. Ouch!
Comment by mediaoffline — Saturday, November 1, 2025 @ 4:56 pm
There has been some talk of the race between McCain and Obama tightening as we hit the home stretch (for example, Chuck Todd was writing about it yesterday, and I heard it discussed on an NPR program (I am not sure, which one) late this morning). An example of actual numbers from earlier in the week: the Gallup daily tracking poll had a two point gap, and then a three point gap (today it is back to five). Such numbers, along with some internal polling, has led McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, to put a rosier spin on the numbers than has been the case of late (some discussion of this can be found in Slate and a response by pollster Stan Greenberg in the form of lengthy letter to McInturff analyzing the current state of the numbers, as well as in the Todd piece linked above).
All of this “tighrening” talk leads me to make three observations:
1. Of course there is some tightening of the race at this point. As we come closer to the actual election, we typically see a narrowing of the gap between the candidates as undecided voters actually, well, decide. It is also during this period that polling in general becomes more accurate because the data being gathered is in the context of an actual decision being made, rather than in the context of a decision that will be made at some point in the future (which is convoluted way of saying that the numbers get more accurate the closer to the election that one gets).
2. It is in the McCain camp’s interest to play up any shift in their direction. They are faced with the daunted task of an almost insurmountable uphill climb (the math is what the math is). As such, they need to motivate their voters (and themselves) with as much hope as possible.
3. Despite the notion that the MSM is totally in the tank for Obama, it is in their best interest to talk up the horse race aspect of the situation and to especially point to any evidence of race-tightening. After all, who’s going to watch the news if it is cast as a fait accompli? The MSM’s main bias is not towards liberals, it is towards drama, because drama brings eyeballs to the sets.
Having said all of that, the race really doesn’t appear to be tightening in a way to suggest that it is actually within McCain’s reach. Whether one looks at Gallup. Zogby, 538, Pollster.com, or RCP, the EC map looks rather Obamish.
If I were in charge of the McCain campaign I’d be talking about 2025. All of the polls and academics had Gore winning, but Bush won the Presidency. I would probably fail to mention that whole popular vote thing, though, and stick to the other facts.
Comment by Scholar in Training — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 8:01 am
[...] is good news for the McCain camp, and part of the “tightening” that I noted last night. However, the bad news for McCain is twofold. First, the very fact [...]
The thing I’ve noticed is that each poll has a wildly different sample of Democrats vs. Republicans vs. Independents. Quite simply, we know what the results will be if Obama manages to get out the vote the way he did during the primaries. On the other hand, we also know what the results will be if traditional voters do vote and traditional non-voters (eg., college students) don’t vote. The question is who will vote, not how they will vote.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 10:50 am
[...] projection shows a little tightening, but nothing of any serious consequence to the likely outcome. As I noted the other day, some tightening is expected, but let’s be realistic, shall we? addthis_url = [...]
The recession that is (and actually that should be “began”): GDP report shows economy shrank in 3Q
The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter.
And that was during the period while some of the stimulus checks were still coming out…
It may have begun, but it’s not officially a recession until it’s lasted “more than a few months” ( http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html and http://faq.bea.gov/cgi-bin/bea.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.html?p_faqid=485&p_created=1206966790&p_sid=FIQaxEhj&p_accessibility=0&p_redirect=&p_lva=&p_sp=cF9zcmNoPSZwX3NvcnRfYnk9JnBfZ3JpZHNvcnQ9JnBfcm93X2NudD0zODYsMzg2JnBfcHJvZHM9JnBfY2F0cz0mcF9wdj0mcF9jdj0mcF9zZWFyY2hfdHlwZT1hbnN3ZXJzLnNlYXJjaF9ubCZwX3BhZ2U9MQ**&p_li=&p_topview=1 )
Comment by Max Lybbert — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 11:27 am
Oops. Better link at http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html (”A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months”).
Comment by Max Lybbert — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 11:28 am
I’m saying this now-for the record-this is the beginning of the OBAMA recession. We know that the Dems are going to blame their ineffectiveness on inheriting Bush’s problems.
But since the recession comes the day after Obama’s infomercial, it is clear he is the responsible party.
Comment by Ratoe — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 11:44 am
Ok. So, now the question is, how long will said recession last? I’m betting two quarters. This would actually be impressive because it would mean people won’t Christmas shop us out of this recession. Sometime in spring ‘09 home sales will hit an uptick and then it’s on to Boardwalk and Park Place.
Comment by King Politics — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 1:07 pm
Max,
I do understand that-however, I am sufficiently convinced that things aren’t likely to grow in the 4th qtr, so I am content to assert that it has begun.
I will be quite happy if I am wrong, of course.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 2:17 pm
I agree with you. I just wanted to mention the fact that officially we “find out” about these things much later. Sometimes after the recession is over, in ffact.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 5:53 pm
True. I just fear that this one may last long enough that we will know we are in it before it is over. Although may King be right-two quarters would be a minor miracle and welcome news.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 7:41 pm
I’m expecting a longer than two-quarters recession. But I don’t think the trough will be all that far down. We’ve been in an economic panic all year (everybody has been antsy there would be a recession, and until this last report nothing ever materialized) and I believe that the current news that there is now a shrinking economy won’t change many behaviors in business or personal lives.
Then again, the company I work at is located in Nevada, and we have a sales office in New York. This week one of the salesmen reported that New York companies are laying off by the boatload, while around here I haven’t seen many staff cuts. So my perspective may be skewed.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 10:55 am
Via Fox News: ‘Joe the Plumber’ Backs Claim That Obama Would Bring ‘Death to Israel’
and
Via the Politico: Joe the Plumber pursued for record deal
In regards to the latter, I am mostly bemused: if the man wants to milk his fifteen minutes of fame for all it is worth, including a country music album, more power to him. All I can say is: only in America.
The former, however, is plain bizarre, as Joe made his claims whilst on the trail with the McCain campaign.
The CSM’s the vote blog elaborates (Joe the Plumber is now Joe the foreign policy advisor?:
How did Joe the Plumber begin dispensing foreign policy advice?
Simple. There was a “Joe the Plumber” bus tour yesterday in Ohio. Joe the Plumber (aka Joe Wurzelbacher) teamed up with Congressman Rob Portman (who was allegedly on McCain’s VP short list) and they went to five different towns in Ohio stumping for the Republican nominee.
Wurzelbacher was doing everything you do on the campaign trail. You know, shaking hands, talking to people, kissing babies, taking pictures, saying a vote for Barack Obama dooms Israel…
If it wasn’t already official, I think we can now declare it: the McCain campaign has hit the desperation phase.
I would call it the tragic phase. Or tragicomic, if you prefer.
Desperation began back in the days before the convention, and ended somewhere over the last few days. We’ve clearly entered a new phase now. And it isn’t pretty.
Comment by MSS — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 11:25 am
Mr. Wurzelbacher was always dancing on the edge of surreality and farce, but I think with this, he has officially jumped the shark.
Comment by Len — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 1:28 pm
MSS:
Yes, “tragicomic” is a good word.
Indeed, one could argue that the Palin selection was the desperation point.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 2:09 pm
Well, this is the proper remedy I believe for all the harm done to Joe’s reputation and his right to privacy by the MSM and the Obamaniac lefty blogs.
I wonder - are any of those right bloggers who were so indignant about the media attention Joe received reconsidering their outrage?
Maybe if the McCain campaign actually pays him for all the mileage they got out of using his image he can afford to buy that plumbing company.
Comment by RandyB — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 8:01 pm
Marc Ambinder tries to make Palin In 2025: The Argument and notes the following:
She is a favorite of talk radio and Fox News conservatives, and speaks their language as only a true member of the club can. (Her recent Limbaugh interview was full of dog whistles that any Dittohead would recognize. Including her actual use of the word ditto.)
All true.
However, let me point out that Jack Kemp and Phil Gramm were Limbaugh favorites as well. Further, the current nominee, McCain (unless we’ve already forgotten) was decidedly not the fav of conservative talk radio. As such, I see such support as an asset to be sure, but it is hardly sufficient to propel one to the nomination.
The only way Palin will go from punchline to mainstream is by getting out in front of people more. She should 1) run for Senator or 2) get a news program (not an infotainment program). Then she needs to hit on the issues she has credibility on - energy, children’s health issues, etc.
If she joins the right wing attack machine by always guesting on Rush and Hannity, she doesn’t have much of a chance.
Comment by Mark L — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 6:22 pm
Via the NYT: Win or Lose, Many See Palin as Future of Party
Whether the Republican presidential ticket wins or loses on Tuesday, a group of prominent conservatives are planning to meet the next day to discuss the way forward, and whatever the outcome, Gov. Sarah Palin will be high on the agenda.
This is hardly surprising, and indeed, it seems that the signals from Palin and her allies within the McCain campaign are such that they know that they are likely to lose and so the planning for next time has begun.
While it seems likely, at least at the moment, that she will be in the GOP mix in 2025, I have a very hard time seeing her winning the nomination. If anything, all of her weaknesses will be totally exposed when she moves from running mate to prime candidate. There is no hiding from the press if one is on center stage. Further, one has to have an answer for a panoply of questions if one is in that position. I have to wonder, in fact, if once the dust settles on the current campaign if the bigwigs in the GOP, upon due consideration, decide that Palin is worth backing. That does remain to be seen, of course.
While it is true that the 2025 process basically starts on November 5th for the party that loses the election, an awful lot will happen between now and then to determine what kind of candidate will have a shot at running a serious bid for the nomination, let alone who will have a real shot at winning. Not only is it likely that Romney and Huckabee will launch a second bid, there are other out there who are not immediately obvious candidates. Palin herself is the embodiment of the fact that one never knows for sure who will be prominent in presidential politics four years down the road.
A lot of this, too, had to do with what direction the Republican Party will go. Many will take the lesson of 2025 (assuming defeat) that McCain wasn’t authentic enough as a conservative, and there will be an emphasis on appealing to the base, meaning (it would seem by the current definition of “the base”): social conservatives/evangelicals and especially southern voters-the voters Palin very much appeals to. However, the problem with that approach is, of course, that they have those voters now, and that cadre of voters does not appear sufficient for victory. Others in the party will say that McCain’s failing was insufficient appeal beyond the base, which will end up to be numerically true on Tuesday, one suspects, but it seems likely that the former voices will prevail in that debate.
Of course, the exact shape of the debate will not be known until we know how an Obama presidency goes, and what issues develop in the world over the next four years (again, assuming that McCain doesn’t win).
If Palin were to emerge as the nominee in 2025, she will be bucking history, as failed VP nominees do not have a good success rate in such maneuvers. To wit, consider the following list:
Not only did all but one of these individuals not come back in four years to win their party’s nomination, my guess is that most of us haven’t heard of a good number of them.
In that list, the only example of the losing VP nominee coming back and winning his party’s was Walter Mondale in 1984, and he had actually been the Vice President from 1976-1980. Dole went from VP nominee to presidential candidate as well, but it took him two decades to achieve the feat. In the last several cycles, we have seen Lieberman and Edwards both try to come from being a losing running mate to the party’s nominee, with obviously unsatisfactory (to them, anyway) results. It should be noted, of course, that not all of the failed veepables even tried for the top slot the next time out (of course, some likely didn’t try because they knew their likely fate).
At any rate, while I suspect that Palin isn’t fully going away after next week (again, assuming that the race is going the direction it appears to be going), but I wouldn’t be penciling her into the GOP top slot in 2025 just yet.
[...] a shot at anything in 2025, much less Presidential nominee. But that is the discourse our there. Steven Taylor this morning cites the New York Times which notes that Republicans, win or lose, are getting [...]
Pingback by Can we stop the “Palin in 2025″ discourse please, it is making me ill » A Couple Things » A couple things about politics, sports, travel, and other stuff. — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 8:10 am
Had you gone back one more election, to find the 1948 VP loser, you would have found Earl Warren whose presidential ambitions were also frustrated though he did find subsequent employment elsewhere.
Comment by fritz — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 10:19 am
[...] importantly, though, Palin has history against her: If Palin were to emerge as the nominee in 2025, she will be bucking history, as failed VP nominees [...]
Pingback by Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Is Palin The Future Of The GOP ? Don’t Bet On It — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 11:24 am
It’s always fun to guess who’ll be politically active four years in the future. But it’s also nearly impossible. There was a time I would have expected Gingrich to run for President. And there was a time I would have expected Gore to run for Senator or to lobby for a judgeship.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 11:36 am
i think the bottom line is that it is probably a moot point to speculate about palin’s political future, today. four years is a long period of time, and there are lots of others (romney, for example) who want to have a say in this.
Comment by nevrdull — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 11:46 am
I’d say Palin’s grasp of the world is about that of a smart 12 year old (the type who might one day become president). So she has about 4 years to gain 20 years experience.
Comment by JJ — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 12:44 am
Also, being way ahead at this point doesn’t necessarily do much for you. We spent almost three years assuming that Hilary Clinton would run away with the Democratic nomination, but that didn’t help her in the end.
Comment by MichaelB — Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 7:27 am
But it gets worse, if you can believe that. The writer chose a non-newsworthy headline over some real news in his own story:
“Republican John McCain, canceled a rally 50 miles north in Quakertown — hardly insignificant, given the dwindling campaign time.”
What? The weather not good for his ‘dwindling campaign’ or was it not good for his arthritis?
Obama had 9000 people show up. Proving once again, Barack Obama is a bold and far superior leader.
Comment by hazmaq — Tuesday, October 28, 2025 @ 2:40 pm
nice.
true, in and of itself, that headline doesn’t seem like all that much. but i was under the impression that a contrast was being made between obama’s choice to continue, versus mccain’s choice to cancel, and that to me is something worth reading about.
notwithstanding the lame headline.
Comment by kouji — Wednesday, October 29, 2025 @ 3:35 pm
Speaking of the North Carolina ballot, here’s a screencap of the portion of the ballot with the instructions for voting for president (taken from the Alamance County sample ballot):
One will note that this section is above the “straight ticket” section.
Granted, the instructions are pretty clear. Still, the basic rule for ballot design should be simplicity. Any complication that can be avoided, should be avoid. For example, as a ballot designer, one has to anticipate that there will be voters who will rush to the “Straight Ticket” section and not pay as careful attention as they should. On the one hand, it is clearly the responsibility of all voters to read the instructions, on the other, it is the state’s responsibility in a democracy to make the voting process as easy as possible. There is also the possible problem that the semi-literate would be able to recognize “Straight Ticket” and go there while no being able to read and comprehend the instructions.
Sample ballots for all NC counties can be found here: Index of ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/samples/.
Yes, there are complaints that in the past two presidential elections, 2-3% of NC ballots did not have a vote for president because people voted straight ticket and didn’t pay attention.
Comment by Greg Weeks — Tuesday, October 28, 2025 @ 11:23 am
I think this really just hurts Democrats down the ticket because I feel we will see the biggest influx of new voters (likely African-American) and they may just vote for Obama rather than the ticket.
Comment by Talmadge East — Tuesday, October 28, 2025 @ 11:29 pm
Regarding the polls, Obama reached his red state “ceiling” awhile back. Obama might win some of these states, but not by much. It’s just inconceivable that he’ll win red states by large margins, but he can win them by a point or two. Once he went zooming past 50% in some red states, it became inevitable that his poll numbers would decline a bit. The question is, by how much will his numbers decline in states like Indiana and North Carolina.
FYI: I’ve changed my blog to kingpolitics.com from blackpoliticalanalysis.com
Comment by King Politics — Friday, October 31, 2025 @ 5:00 pm