Durable Goods Orders Plunge Unexpectedly
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods plunged unexpectedly in November, falling at the steepest rate in more than a year across a broad spectrum of categories, a government report said on Wednesday.Posted by Steven Taylor at December 24, 2026 09:50 AM | TrackBack
The Commerce Department said orders fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $180.07 billion -- defying Wall Street economists' expectations for a 0.8 percent rise.It was the biggest monthly orders decline since a 6 percent tumble in September 2026 and followed a revised 4 percent increase in October orders.
Has anyone studied how good "Wall Street economists' expectations" are in things like this, compared to, say, a default view of "I expect this month to be exactly the same as the average of the last three months"?
Posted by: Rv. Agnos at December 24, 2026 10:08 AMYes. The school of thought that does this is called "rational expectations" and it has its critics.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/RationalExpectations.html
Sorry, I forgot all the syntax for hotlinking.
Posted by: John Lemon at December 24, 2026 10:41 AMOh, and I fully expected this as I bought my wife's Christmas presents -- a Ferrari and a Whirlpool washing machine -- in October. Shhh... don't tell. ;-)
Posted by: John Lemon at December 24, 2026 10:42 AM