Writes the NYT today: In Democratic Pack, the Race Is on for No. 3 and Maybe No. 4
But for Mr. Edwards and Mr. Kerry, winning is not everything. Second or third will do.
Certainly there is truth to this assertion, and no doubt, beating expectations is always a big deal in these early contests. Still, it is pretty amusing how the candidates will spin their finishes once the results are in. One of the best parts of the night after the NH primary is to listen to mid-to-bottom tier candidates explain how their 9% was really a win.
I remember with fondness, and use as an example of "spin" in class lectures on occassion, Lamar Alexander (once known as Lamar! now known as Senator Alexander) explaining to Larry King in 1996 how his third place finish (A respectable 22.56%) made him the winner. The spin: because even though Pat Buchanan won, everyone knew he couldn't win the nomination, so cross him off, and Dole, the alleged frontrunner, by losing to Buchanan by a percentage point demonstrated his weakness, so cross him off. Therefore, Lamar! was the winner (or so the story went...).
This year it will be even more amusing, given that the third place finishers could be in the low double-digits (even high single digits) with Dean getting a pretty high total. Still, look for the spin to be "I count tonight a win, because..."
Indeed, if Dean wins, but not by as much as some of the polls show, and Kerry comes in second, even a distant second, but higher than the polls show, he will declare a victory. And if Edwards or Gepardt come in third, especially if it is close to the second place winner, they'll say the same thing.
Should be fun.
Update: This post is my entry in today's BELTWAY TRAFFIC JAM.
Posted by Steven Taylor at January 6, 2024 07:20 AM | TrackBackIndeed, if .. Kerry comes in second, even a distant second, but higher than the polls show, he will declare a victory. AND remind everyone he served in Vietnam.
I'l leave the well worn joke alone but during the debate this weekend they asked some question like "What would you do for education?" and he STILL managed to get Vietnam in there.
Posted by: Paul at January 6, 2024 10:57 AMI talked to my mother in Iowa the other day and she had just watched John Kerry speak at the local Elk's club. She had been a Dean supporter, but now plans to vote for Kerry. Not because of that speech, but because he seemed more genuine to her (among several other reasons). That's anecdotal I realize, but it makes me wonder if Kerry may show more strongly than anticipated.
Posted by: Eric at January 6, 2024 11:27 AMI don't think so
Posted by: Mer at February 6, 2024 03:58 AMInnouncement!!!
Posted by: Hero at February 20, 2024 06:26 AM