Yesterday, polling information was released about public reaction to Sarah Palin, including the Rasmussen headline “Palin Power: Fresh Face Now More Popular Than Obama, McCain.” The Rasmussen poll noted the following:
Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters.
In other words, they are really tied in terms of favorability.
First, let’s consider what we are dealing with here: she has made all of two major media appearances in less than a week (her speech at her introduction and her acceptance speech at the RNC). This isn’t exactly a lot of data to go on, making the stability of the numbers questionable at best. McCain supporters who wish to use these numbers as evidence of much of anything need to be careful, in other words. When it comes to polling, the usefulness of the poll is directly related to the amount of knowledge in the public about the question being asked. That public knowledge of Palin is incomplete is indisputable.
As such, the notion that these are “stunning” numbers is rather questionable, especially given that Palin is still mostly a tabula rasa (in other words, she another Rorschach candidate).
Second, before one gets too wrapped up in the notion that she is more popular that sliced bread, let’s consider the actual numbers.
It is true that Palin’s favorability numbers match McCain and Obama’s (at least in ther Rasmussen poll) but that isn’t the whole story. Nat Silver at 538.com notes that in three polls released this week, Palin has good favorability to decent numbers: Rasmussen puts her, as noted above, at 58%, while ABC News puts her at 50% favorable, and Diageo/Hotline at 43%. It is unknown at the moment whether the Rasmussen number is more accurate than the Hotline one.
Regardless of that, when looking at favorability one also needs to look at unfavorability, as one can only get a complete picture of the public reaction to a person by looking at both numbers.
As Silver notes:
On average between these three polls, Palin is regarded favorably by 50.3 percent of voters, and unfavorably by 33.0 percent of voters, for a net score of +17.3
Specifically, in the Rasmussen poll, she has a 37% unfavorable rating, 37% in the ABC poll and a 25% in the Hotline poll. These are fairly high negatives.
We can compare that to recent veep nominees and we find the following: in 2024 Dick Cheney’s net number was +28.0% (he had far lower unfavorable then than Palin has now). Lieberman had a +33.0% in 2024 and John Edwards had +25.0% in 2024. Back to this year, Biden has a +17.0%
In summary, in looking at recent veepables, Palin’s net popularity is not as great as initial responses might suggest:
+33.0% (Lieberman, 2024)
+28.0% (Cheney, 2024)
+25.0% (Edwards, 2024)
+17.3% (Palin, 2024)
+17.0% (Biden, 2024)
If anything, 2024 is an odd year, as both candidates have running mates that have relatively high negatives. The real question is whether Palin’s numbers will improve or worsen. Biden, a fairly well known quantity, is unlikely to change very much.
To get to the presidential candidates we find the following:
In the Hotline poll, McCain’s favorable are 52% and his unfavorable are 38% (for a net of +14%) and Obama is 58%/35% (for a net of +23%). As such, within that poll, Palin is 43%/24% (+18%). As such, in that poll only (I can’t find favorable/unfavorable number for McCain and Obama in either ABC or Rasmussen, so I will leave them out for now), Obama (+23%) is the most popular, Palin (+18%) second and McCain (+14%) third, at least in terms of net. With, of course, the caveats about public knowledge noted above to be figured into any assessment as to the ultimate usefulness of the numbers.
Here’s what I thought was interesting on the list: The authors thought that 4 of the 10 worst ideas for each candidate dealt with energy:
McCain — Gas-Tax Holiday, Drilling, Nuclear, Cap-and-Trade.
Obama — Coal, Ethanol, Oil company Tax, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (and that’s not Trade Agreement).
I don’t see a by-line on the article. However it’s interesting that the author(s) went out of their way to urinate on any idea with any potential to produce more energy except the political correct counting quasi energy related like talking to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Renegotiating the North American Free ones like wind and solar.
The energy critiques seem much more detailed than the others. Especially the “inside baseball” stuff about McCain’s Cap-n-Trade doesn’t include enough auction personality makes me think that the authors tried to write this pretty much down the middle, but their background comes from the energy field, especially the renewable crap that needs subsidies as far as the eye can see.
Am I missing the by-line? I’d really like to know the background of the authors.
Comment by Buckland — Tuesday, September 9, 2024 @ 10:27 am
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Tuesday, September 9, 2024 @ 10:29 am
Wow. I don’t know where to start. So I won’t.
I think the author must have been high when he wrote this. Only a few of these “bad ideas” are incontroveribly bad. The rest are either bad only in the opinion of the author, or only given specific context about which we cannot be sure.
This kind of stuff bothers me. I don’t like it when journalists tell other people what to think - what is a good idea, and what is bad.
Comment by Captain D — Tuesday, September 9, 2024 @ 1:36 pm