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Thursday, October 29, 2024
By Steven L. Taylor

Research 2024 (as sponsored by Daily Kos) has another poll on the NY-23 special election and provides the following:

Owens (Democrat):          33%

Hoffman (Conservative):  32%

Scozzafava (Republican):  21%

Undecided:                          14%

N=600, MOE +/-4%.

These numbers are not radically different (although they are closer) than the two previous polls I noted this week, and this one has a more respectable sample size.

Of course, given the MOE and the number of undecided voters, it remains rather difficult to use these numbers to predict the outcome (and given the nature of the race it is difficult to know who a “likely voter” is likely to be in this context).

At this point no matter the outcome, it will be of great interest.  If Owens wins, it will show the ill-advised nature of splitting the GOP vote (given that otherwise it would have likely been a slam-dunk GOP win).  If Hoffman wins it will not only be interesting to see a third party candidate win a House seat, but it will fuel the Tea Party movement’s enthusiasm for itself.  If Scozzafava wins it will encourage the big tent faction of the Republican Party.

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