The PoliBlog

The Collective
Friday, December 14, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via CNN: CNN Political Ticker S.C. poll: Huckabee bolts to top of GOP; Obama cuts into Clinton lead

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll of South Carolinians was released Friday Huckabee was the choice of 24 percent of South Carolina Republicans in the survey conducted by telephone between Dec. 9 and 12. When the same poll was conducted in July, Huckabee was in the lower tier with just 3 percent of support from registered GOP voters.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson was second with 17 percent, slightly down from his previous 18 percent.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who led in July with 30 percent, dropped to a tie for third with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, both at 16 percent. Romney’s showing was a major improvement of his 6 percent standing in the previous survey.

I continue to wonder if this is mainly the result of unhappiness with the rest of the field, therefore moving Huckabee largely by default and how much of it is genuine enthusiasm for Huckabee. There is also the question of whether he can maintain the positioning after several weeks of scrutiny in the press. Such scrutiny could increase his positioning if it confirms the reasons voters think they like him, or it could result in him being tossed on the scrap heap along with the previous front-runners if it ends up he isn’t what people hoped he might be.

It should be noted that the gap between the candidates is not that great, so turnout or even small shifts in support could change the outcomes.

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Filed under: US Politics, 2008 Campaign | |


  • el
  • pt
    1. Huckabee Backlash Growing

      The continuing rise of Mike Huckabee — he’s now vaulted to the top of the polls in South Carolina to go along with his surge in Iowa, New Hampshire, and the national surveys — has created the inevitable backlash.
      It’s the fat…

      Trackback by Outside The Beltway | OTB — Friday, December 14, 2024 @ 9:51 am

    2. “I continue to wonder if this is mainly the result of unhappiness with the rest of the field, therefore moving Huckabee largely by default and how much of it is genuine enthusiasm for Huckabee.”

      How much do you have to wonder, when 24% is enough to lead the field?

      There are fewer better examples in current or recent American politics of the need for ranked-preference voting than the GOP “race.”

      Fortunately, that is more or less how Iowans vote at their caucuses. Unlike almost all the rest of GOP primary voters, who are stuck with block plurality.

      Comment by MSS — Friday, December 14, 2024 @ 2:13 pm

    3. I remember you wondering if Paul would hit double-digits. I believe this poll has him at 11%. If you combine what I said about him potentially being under-polled (I think the decent support he has been getting on the left backs this up) with your comment about voter turnout (Paul has some devoted supporters), and I think it backs up what I was saying about Paul being able to surprise some people on these upcoming election days.

      Comment by Li — Saturday, December 15, 2024 @ 6:55 am

    4. I wonder why no one is making the comparison between Huckabee and George W. Bush. Huckabee certainly doesn’t want to draw the comparison. But it is clear that Huckabee is the option that gives Republicans a more articulate Bush. He’s a values conservative friendly to big government.

      Is that what they want? Is Bush’s lack of ability to communicate effectively his only problem? If I’m picking the Republican candidate, I certainly want someone with a little more fiscal sanity, among other things. And with all respect to Huckabee, he hasn’t shown very clearly that he is more competent than Bush.

      Comment by David H. — Saturday, December 15, 2024 @ 10:49 am

    5. As Steven later pointed out, I was incorrect that there was any opportunity at GOP caucuses for voters to switch to their second choice. That opportunity exists for Democratic caucus-goers only.

      (See, Steven, I got over my laziness–presumably only temporarily.)

      Comment by MSS — Tuesday, December 18, 2024 @ 11:25 am

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