Potential Movements each Week:

The Whole Loaf: Can any of the Nine make Bush into Texas Toast?

Considering that the news is dominated by the the Democrats deriding the President, it is no surprise that his numbers have suffered a bit of late.

FIRST: SLICING UP FEBRUARY THIRD

There are seven primaries on February Third. In alphabetical order they are:

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina

In terms of significance I would rank in three tiers::

TIER 1

South Carolina: The big Southern test. And Edwards has to win.
Missouri: The most delegate at state to date. Plus, who gets the Gephardt vote?

TIER II

Arizona/New Mexico: The west rises to the fore.
Oklahoma: Semi-Southern, and one of the places early polling showed Clark having a shot.

TIER III

Delaware: We’ve already done the New England bit/small state
North Dakota: Small pop, not a bellwether of any kind.

KERRY

Winning is: If he wins MO and several other contests, then he will continue to be considered the frontrunner—any combo with MO, AZ will be solid. If he get OK, and beats off Clark, he will be in even better shape, as Clark’s freefall will accelerate. If he manages a win in SC, then he will be crowned, perhaps rightly, as unstoppable.

Losing is: Losing both MO and SC.

Can still claim victory if: As long as he wins MO and one other states while doing reasonably well elsewhere. However only two wins, even with MO, will result in a blood in the water effect.

EDWARDS

Winning is: He has to win SC to credibly say that he has won on Tuesday. Although outlandish scenarios like a surprise win in MO, or taking several other states would work as well. However, I wouldn’t hold my breath on those possibilities. He has to take SC, or the whole “I can win in the South” argument is blown out the window—and without a doubt, that is one of his key strengths.

Losing is: The direct converse of winning: losing SC, even by a point.

Can still claim victory if: After losing SC he gets high on goes on TV he can claim victory all he likes, and if under sufficient influence of illicit substances, he may well believe it. However, he can claim no victory sans SC. If he does lose, I’d go find Dennis, cuz maybe he’ll share whatever it is he’s been smoking.

DEAN

Winning is: A win somewhere. However (and remarkably) this is rather unlikely.

Losing is: Probably what’s going to happen.

Can still claim victory if: If his insurgent strategy of simply playing for the delegates nets some decent numbers, he can at least spin his way into saying that he’s still in it. However, I don’t think that such a strategy is viable at this point. And further, since he had to yank his tv spots, he may have a hard time getting to the magic 15% in enough states to achieve viability.

CLARK

Winning is: He has to win somewhere, OK being the most likely place. A solid showing with veterans and moderate-to-conservative Democrats in SC will be useful for his electability spin.

Losing is: If he doesn’t get at least one win, he is nearing Crumb Pile status.

Can still claim victory if: He will claim victory even if he doesn’t win anything, especially if he in in close second in OK. However, that and 500 pesos will buy you cup of coffee in Bogota. No wins, spin or no, means defeat.

LIEBERMAN

Winning is: Recognizing that he has lost and officially pulling out before Tuesday so as to spare us (and himself) the misery. Now, in fantasy-land, winning is a surprise win in Oklahoma, or a strong second in SC.

Losing is: The sad, sorry truth of the matter and the sooner he realizes it, the sooner we can stop having to watch the painful spectacle of him pretending to have support.

Can still claim victory if: See Edwards.

SHARPTON

Winning is: Coming in second in SC.

Losing is: Third or worse: especially if he fails t get 15%

Can still claim victory if: He gets some delegates.

Kucinich

No clever lines this week. Make up your own.

SLICE-BY-SLICE

FRESH BAKED

Kerry: Wonderific French Bread in a week (Dough is on the Rise).

Kerry can now be said to have achieved Wonder Bread status, as the nomination is now within his reach. A good showing Tuesday will solidify his position.

THE SUPERMARKET SHELF

Edwards Plain ol’ White Bread (Heat’s Off this Week)

I have had a ton of poor predictions in this process to date, one that has proved to be correct is that Edwards has to have South Carolina to have a chance. If he can’t demonstrate the ability to win a southern state in a Democratic process, he will fall off the radar.

While a loss in SC won’t be a death blow, it will be a wound of substantial proportion. If he loses SC he will come out of the 3rd the way Dean came out of NH: functional, but only barely so.

Clark Toasting White Bread (the Heat is on)

There is some hope of emerging from the 3rd in decent shape, but he seems pretty toasty to me at this stage. He stays on the Supermarket Shelf for one more week

DAY-OLD BAKERY

Dean: Toast (the Heat is on)

From Wonder Bread to Toast in a few short weeks: ain’t politics fun? Getting scrapped is possible, but not probable.

THE CRUMB PILE

Lieberman: Crumbling Burnt Toast (he’s done)

He’s done. He’s lost. He has no prayer. I know it, you know it. The mystery is: why doesn’t he?

Sharpton: He remains burnt toast (and the heat continues)

While some have opined that the Reverend could be a serious player in SC, my guess is that he will be lucky to reach the 15% needed for viability and a delegate.

Kucinich Zen crumbs, but crumbs nonetheless (so burnt, the head was turned off)

THE VICE-LOAF

Hillary

Dave Wissing of The Hedgehog Report has a report on a rumor I heard earlier in the week: that Edwards would ask Hillary to be his veep, should he win the nomination. I still have a hard time seeing Hillary accepting a veep nod.

Edwards

The talk of a Kerry-Edwards ticket continues. This week Edwards insisted that he wouldn’t go there. We shall see.

I still think that a Senator-Senator ticket strikes me as an odd idea.