PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » 2003

Dan Rather has a column in the WSJ about his encounter with Saddam. The piece itself really doesn’t say much, but it clearly proffers the thesis that Saddam’s main motivator is survival. I would reject this notion and suggest that his main motivation is survival with power, and on his terms. He could survive by going into exile, or he could easily have survived with power, but sans WMD’s if he would cooperate with the inspection regime.

No, Saddam’s actions clearly demonstrate that he is hoping to push this situation to brink, and that the US will back down or be stopped (because its a bluff, because of the French, because of the protestors, etc.). He has outwitted the international community for twelve years, so he has some cause to believe he will do so know. Cleary he wants to survive and maintain the status quo ante.

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Thursday, February 27, 2003

Interesting, although not all that

By Steven Taylor

Interesting, although not all that surprising, given the current uncertainty: CNN.com – Support for Bush’s re-election falls below 50 percent

I maintain that a successful war with Iraq (which I think to be likley) will bolster both the President’s political capital, and the economy. Further, polls like this with a lack of an actual known opponent are notoriously unhelpful. Still, the numbers are indicative of difficulties for the President, to be sure. Although my “reverse 1992″ scenario is playing out: Forty-Three looks vulnerable about 2 years out, and the Dems are flocking to the primaries, which is the direct opposite of Forty-One’s fortunes.

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Intriguing: The SF Chronicle is

By Steven Taylor

Intriguing: The SF Chronicle is reporting thatCondoleeza Rice is considering a run for CA governor in ’06. This will feed speculation that Dr. Rice has presidential aspirations. (Thanks to Daily Pundit, where I first saw the link).