 | The Toast-o-meter: A Weekly News Round-Up and Handicapping of the Race for the Democratic Nomination. |
The Toast-O-Meter comes to you Fortified with linkage and Enhanced with bloggage!
Enough with this one-state-at-a-time nonsense: on to some serious primary-osity with seven on the table for this Tuesday.
The scale:
Potential Movements each Week:
The Whole Loaf: Can any of the Nine make Bush into Texas Toast?
(Bush is fresh, the Loaf is stale)
Considering that the news is dominated by the the Democrats deriding the President, it is no surprise that his numbers have suffered a bit of late.
FIRST: SLICING UP FEBRUARY THIRD
There are seven primaries on February Third. In alphabetical order they are:
Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
In terms of significance I would rank in three tiers::
TIER 1
South Carolina: The big Southern test. And Edwards has to win.
Missouri: The most delegate at state to date. Plus, who gets the Gephardt vote?
TIER II
Arizona/New Mexico: The west rises to the fore.
Oklahoma: Semi-Southern, and one of the places early polling showed Clark having a shot.
TIER III
Delaware: We’ve already done the New England bit/small state
North Dakota: Small pop, not a bellwether of any kind.
KERRY
Winning is: If he wins MO and several other contests, then he will continue to be considered the frontrunner—any combo with MO, AZ will be solid. If he get OK, and beats off Clark, he will be in even better shape, as Clark’s freefall will accelerate. If he manages a win in SC, then he will be crowned, perhaps rightly, as unstoppable.
Losing is: Losing both MO and SC.
Can still claim victory if: As long as he wins MO and one other states while doing reasonably well elsewhere. However only two wins, even with MO, will result in a blood in the water effect.
EDWARDS
Winning is: He has to win SC to credibly say that he has won on Tuesday. Although outlandish scenarios like a surprise win in MO, or taking several other states would work as well. However, I wouldn’t hold my breath on those possibilities. He has to take SC, or the whole “I can win in the South” argument is blown out the window—and without a doubt, that is one of his key strengths.
Losing is: The direct converse of winning: losing SC, even by a point.
Can still claim victory if: After losing SC he gets high on goes on TV he can claim victory all he likes, and if under sufficient influence of illicit substances, he may well believe it. However, he can claim no victory sans SC. If he does lose, I’d go find Dennis, cuz maybe he’ll share whatever it is he’s been smoking.
DEAN
Winning is: A win somewhere. However (and remarkably) this is rather unlikely.
Losing is: Probably what’s going to happen.
Can still claim victory if: If his insurgent strategy of simply playing for the delegates nets some decent numbers, he can at least spin his way into saying that he’s still in it. However, I don’t think that such a strategy is viable at this point. And further, since he had to yank his tv spots, he may have a hard time getting to the magic 15% in enough states to achieve viability.
CLARK
Winning is: He has to win somewhere, OK being the most likely place. A solid showing with veterans and moderate-to-conservative Democrats in SC will be useful for his electability spin.
Losing is: If he doesn’t get at least one win, he is nearing Crumb Pile status.
Can still claim victory if: He will claim victory even if he doesn’t win anything, especially if he in in close second in OK. However, that and 500 pesos will buy you cup of coffee in Bogota. No wins, spin or no, means defeat.
LIEBERMAN
Winning is: Recognizing that he has lost and officially pulling out before Tuesday so as to spare us (and himself) the misery. Now, in fantasy-land, winning is a surprise win in Oklahoma, or a strong second in SC.
Losing is: The sad, sorry truth of the matter and the sooner he realizes it, the sooner we can stop having to watch the painful spectacle of him pretending to have support.
Can still claim victory if: See Edwards.
SHARPTON
Winning is: Coming in second in SC.
Losing is: Third or worse: especially if he fails t get 15%
Can still claim victory if: He gets some delegates.
Kucinich
No clever lines this week. Make up your own.
SLICE-BY-SLICE
FRESH BAKED
Kerry: Wonderific French Bread in a week (Dough is on the Rise).
Kerry can now be said to have achieved Wonder Bread status, as the nomination is now within his reach. A good showing Tuesday will solidify his position.
THE SUPERMARKET SHELF
Edwards Plain ol’ White Bread (Heat’s Off this Week)
I have had a ton of poor predictions in this process to date, one that has proved to be correct is that Edwards has to have South Carolina to have a chance. If he can’t demonstrate the ability to win a southern state in a Democratic process, he will fall off the radar.
While a loss in SC won’t be a death blow, it will be a wound of substantial proportion. If he loses SC he will come out of the 3rd the way Dean came out of NH: functional, but only barely so.
Clark Toasting White Bread (the Heat is on)
There is some hope of emerging from the 3rd in decent shape, but he seems pretty toasty to me at this stage. He stays on the Supermarket Shelf for one more week
DAY-OLD BAKERY
Dean: Toast (the Heat is on)
From Wonder Bread to Toast in a few short weeks: ain’t politics fun? Getting scrapped is possible, but not probable.
THE CRUMB PILE
Lieberman: Crumbling Burnt Toast (he’s done)
He’s done. He’s lost. He has no prayer. I know it, you know it. The mystery is: why doesn’t he?
Sharpton: He remains burnt toast (and the heat continues)
While some have opined that the Reverend could be a serious player in SC, my guess is that he will be lucky to reach the 15% needed for viability and a delegate.
Kucinich Zen crumbs, but crumbs nonetheless (so burnt, the head was turned off)
THE VICE-LOAF
Hillary
Dave Wissing of The Hedgehog Report has a report on a rumor I heard earlier in the week: that Edwards would ask Hillary to be his veep, should he win the nomination. I still have a hard time seeing Hillary accepting a veep nod.
Edwards
The talk of a Kerry-Edwards ticket continues. This week Edwards insisted that he wouldn’t go there. We shall see.
I still think that a Senator-Senator ticket strikes me as an odd idea.
January 31st, 2024 at 12:13 pm
Nice job, as always, Steven.
January 31st, 2024 at 12:36 pm
erp,
Considering that Gephardt withdrew from the race over a week ago, it would take a crafty plan indeed for him to get the nomination at this point.
January 31st, 2024 at 12:38 pm
Robert: Thanks.
erp: I’m speechless.
James: Indeed.
January 31st, 2024 at 3:02 pm
“Considering that Gephardt withdrew from the race over a week ago, it would take a crafty plan indeed for him to get the nomination at this point.”
Unlikely, James, but possible.
If there is a open convention (which looks likely at this point, although nothing is ever certain in politics), it could turn to anybody. The question is what faction controls the convention; if the establishment, some combination of Edwards-Gephart-Lieberman will probably be nominated…and the Petulant Left stalks out in high dudgeon. If the Petulant Left controls it, the ticket will likely be some combinaton of Clark-Dean-Kerry; the establishment may swallow hard and accept the near-certainty of a drubbing in November for the sake of a show of unity, or they may get tired of the children and stay home for the rest of the year.
January 31st, 2024 at 3:49 pm
The only way there’s going to be an open convention is if Kerry does something soooooooo stupid as to make the Dean rant look like the Gettysburg address.
The simple fact is that Kerry is going to win most of the primaries on tuesday, and the only way Dean can win is if most of the Deaniacs have already voted. They began voting before Iowa, remember?
At this point the only person who could beat Kerry is Edwards and only if he wins South Carolina and comes in a close second everywhere else but Oklahoma, where Clark looks like he’s going to win.
Is there any way we can get Tonly Blair the nomination?
January 31st, 2024 at 4:11 pm
jj – After agreeing in advance to accept, Gephardt would be nominated from the floor knowing full well that he can’t win. None of the other candidates would be stupid enough to accept the nomination if it’s a sure loser.
It has to be a brokered convention because that’s how Hillary has orchestrated it to give her the most flexibility. She’s in control and don’t anybody forget it.
January 31st, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Gephardt won’t get the presidential nomination even if there is a brokered convention, but he’d be a smart VP pick for Kerry or (if he can make a comeback) Dean.
February 1st, 2024 at 5:30 pm
Senator Kerry needs VP running mate with some integrity to offset his lack of it. Hmmmm. I can’t seem to come up with a good, honest name out of the current bunch of availables to recommend.
The big question about Senator Kerry, if he is elected, is whether his wife will be another Hillary Clinton in the White House. OMG, please, no. At least Mrs Heinz-Kerry would be unlikely to make off with government property when they vacate the place.
A good ad for the Republicans would be one of those morphing things where Senator Clinton morphs into Mrs. Heinz-Kerry with appropriate shots of Hillary’s troubling career in the background (health care meetings, Vince Foster, travel office, a pile of records on a night stand, vast conspiracy accusation, the walk to the waiting helicopter, etc.). If the same geniuses who create the Super Bowl ads worked on the political ads campaigns would be infinitely more interesting.
February 3rd, 2024 at 9:17 am
Does anybody think that Kerry has faced a real test yet?
The interesting thing to me, is that the present poll position he enjoys comes not only from the fact that Bush has not attacked him yet (look at Dean’s self-immolation to see why), but that none of the other Democrats has made a real effort to attack Kerry’s record. It’s comparatively weak, and sooner or later, the others will realize they have to attack Kerry or lose without a fight.
When the General Election comes, we’re really looking at only one of two situations: A guy with no record (Edwards, Dean) or a guy with a weak record (Kerry, Clark). And there is a real character issue with more than a couple of these guys; what we saw happen with Dean in January could easily happen with some of these others in the summer.
May 21st, 2024 at 6:55 pm
Computer security recourse: SecureRoot
January 31st, 2024 at 11:06 am
TOAST-O-METER UPDATE
Steven Taylor has the Post-New Hampshire Toast-O-Meter up at PoliBlog….
January 31st, 2024 at 11:14 am
How Do You Want Your Eggs?
Just in time for the weekend talking head shows, Steven Taylor has the new Democratic Primary Toast-o-Meter….
January 31st, 2024 at 12:13 pm
The Primaries
The tireless Steven Taylor (who desperately needs to hitch a ride out of the South) gives me no reason to write about elections today. He may have forgotten to note, however, that Joe Trippi is a crybaby….
January 31st, 2024 at 1:34 pm
John Kerry: French non-Toast
Steven Taylor has your weekend edition of the Toast-O-Meter up and running, looking ahead to Tuesday’s seven-state primary.
January 31st, 2024 at 1:58 pm
Weekly Assessment Of The Democratic Candidates
Steven, of PoliBlog, has his weekly assessment of the seven dwarves is up. The most notable for me — being a Dean hater and all — is that he blew so much money trying to stay competitive in Iowa and…
January 31st, 2024 at 2:50 pm
http://cayankee.blogs.com/cayankee/2004/01/steven_taylor_h_1.html
Steven Taylor has posted The Toast-O-Meter (1/31/04 Edition), Steven’s weekly assessment of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. As always it is entertaining and worth your time.
January 31st, 2024 at 2:51 pm
Toast Time
The latest Toast-o-Meter is here for your reading enjoyment.
January 31st, 2024 at 7:56 pm
Toast time again
PoliBlog has the latest Toast-O-Meter up and running for your perusal. As usual, Steven breaks down the presidential race and sees who’s hot and who’s toast….
February 1st, 2024 at 11:40 am
Surveying the Democratic Field
WE ALL have our prejudices and perceptions about the Democratic candidates. The following are mine. John Kerry and I actually…
February 1st, 2024 at 12:33 pm
Poliblogging
Steven Taylor has this week’s edition of the Toast-O-Meter as well as a link to a column he wrote for the Huntsville Times….
February 2nd, 2024 at 9:49 am
Toast Report
Poliblog’s weekly Toast-O-Meter (Fortified with linkage and Enhanced with bloggage!) can be found here: The Toast-O-Meter (1/31/04 Edition)…
February 2nd, 2024 at 10:56 pm
Down to the wire
Make or break time for some of the candidates and time to face reality for most of the rest. Let’s chat, shall we? (Poliblog, a site that needs blogrolling, was most helpful for all this)
February 3rd, 2024 at 10:31 am
Rope A Dope?
Is the Dean campaign engaged in a rope a dope maneuver today? They’re certainly setting the expectation of also ran status. Whether this spin or strategy doesn’t much mater – what matters is how heavy the media momentum for Kerry…