The build on the prior post, WaPo has more details: Contender Alleges Mexico Vote Was Rigged.

First, there is the class-based rhetoric:

In a news conference before the rally, López Obrador called Calderón “an employee” of Mexico’s powerful upper classes and said a victory by his conservative opponent would be “morally impossible.”

On the one hand, this has been his basic theme in the campaign. On the other, however, such rhetoric coupled with charges of fraud, simple ratchet up the emotions of the moment, and it is unclear as to the positive end for such emotions.

Second, and more significantly, AMLO is talking about taking moves away from the established institutional routes that have been designed to deal with these kinds of difficulties in Mexico:

López Obrador added a new layer of complexity to the crisis by saying he not only would challenge the results in the country’s special elections court but also would attempt to have the election declared illegal by Mexico’s Supreme Court. That strategy presages a constitutional confrontation because according to many legal experts the special elections court is the only body that can hear election challenges.

At a minimum, it would be better if AMLO would wait until the established process is fulfilled before threatening the usage of routes that may not even be legally possible.

On the institutional process:

López Obrador wants a vote-by-vote count, which would require opening sealed vote packets from more than 130,000 polling stations. Electoral commission officials have sided with Calderón’s strategists, who argue that the law does not allow for the packets to be opened unless tally sheets attached to the packets appear to have been altered. López Obrador said that only 2,600 vote packets were opened Tuesday and Wednesday during a marathon official count, which shrank Calderón’s lead from 400,000 votes after a preliminary vote to 230,000.

and

The electoral institute will cede control of the election to Mexico’s special elections court, which has until Sept. 6 to decide whether to certify the results. Calderón has not waited for the elections court, and neither have world leaders. He accepted congratulatory calls on Friday from President Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. But López Obrador cautioned against such formalities, saying, “Right now, there is no president-elect.”

AMLO is correct in this regard–and Calderón has to be patient. While he is taking a low-profile, he is also acting like the president-elect–something he needs to be judicious about, as legally this is not yet the case.

2 Comments

1. I suppose it depends on whether AMLO is alleging violations of his or his voters’ constitutional rights. If so, then I think the Supreme Court would be obliged to hear the case. (As far as I know, there exists no discretionary power–what we call certiorari–in Mexican jurisprudence.)

   The TRIFE hears only cases realted to election law and its rulings on such matters are final. But the Supreme Court has explicit authority of constitutional review (which raises the interesting question of whether the TRIFE really is “final” if AMLO were to allege that the TRIFE acted unconstitutionally).

   I don’t see this as in any sense going outside the institutions. He is bringing cases before the established courts. That is different from saying he has good cases (I doubt it). But it is also different from saying he is acting to undermine institutions.

   Comment by Matthew Shugart (Guestblogger) — Sunday, July 9, 2024 @ 1:06 pm

2. Well, it would seem that at a minimum the statement is premature: surely it would be prudent to go through the TRIFE process and then determine a) if there are still irregularities, and b) if there is a legal route to the Supreme Court from the TRIFE?

   My basic point would be that making calls now to head to the SC undercuts the existing institutional structure.

   Of course, I am no expert on Mexican election law.

   Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, July 9, 2024 @ 1:25 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post.

The trackback url for this post is: http://poliblogger.com/wp-trackback.html?p=10312

NOTE: I will delete any TrackBacks that do not actually link and refer to this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.