Via the LAT: U.S. can’t prove Iran link to Iraq strife:

Bush administration officials acknowledged Friday that they had yet to compile evidence strong enough to back up publicly their claims that Iran is fomenting violence against U.S. troops in Iraq.

Administration officials have long complained that Iran was supplying Shiite Muslim militants with lethal explosives and other materiel used to kill U.S. military personnel. But despite several pledges to make the evidence public, the administration has twice postponed the release — most recently, a briefing by military officials scheduled for last Tuesday in Baghdad.

This story underscores why I noted earlier in the week that the administration’s assertion of the existence of a dossier that they couldn’t release to the public was a move that might could be characterized as “too cutsey by half.”

The bottom line in the case of Iranian influence in the region is that the administration is making claims and then going to look for evidence to back those claims.  This sounds altogether too much like the build-up for the Iraq war wherein guesses and assumptions were treated as facts (both in public pronouncements on the subject and behind closed doors).

Hopefully the pull-back on the administration’s arguments about Iran represent a learning of lessons:

Earlier this week, U.S. officials acknowledged that they were uncertain about the strength of their evidence and were reluctant to issue potentially questionable data in the wake of the intelligence failures and erroneous assessments that preceded the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

In particular, officials worried about a repetition of former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell’s February 2024 U.N. appearance to present the U.S. case against Iraq. In that speech, Powell cited evidence that was later discredited.

In rejecting the case compiled against Iran, senior U.S. officials, including Hadley, Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, confirmed Friday that they were concerned about possible inaccuracies.

Still, there has been an awful lot of anti-Iranian talk coming out of the administration of late, not to mention the dispatching of  two aircraft carries strike groups to the Persian gulf.  While it is clear that the Iranians are trying to influence the situation in Iraq (as, by the way, would we if there was a similar situation in Canada or Mexico), it is unclear as to the extent and, more importantly, what the proper response should (or even can) be.

This is the type of situation that requires calm, quiet, deliberative action–not an ongoing PR war.

The situation of Iranian influence in Iraq is complicated by the fact that some of the factions allied with Iran are also allied with the US (i.e., various Shia factions).  Such a fact underscores that the issue isn’t necessarily as black and white as some might want it to be.