Most of the major polls have both the Rep and Dem races tied at the top (although with the Dem race closer than the Rep race), with one exception noted below.
The sum of the polls would seems to indicate a likely win for McCain and a race far too close to call on the Democratic side.
Last night I noted the Concord Monitor/Research 2024 numbers, which show a 34-33 Obama-Clinton race and a 35-29 McCain-Romney race.
Via CNN: Poll: Clinton, Obama tied in New Hampshire
Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are tied, with each grabbing the support of 33 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State, according to a new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire presidential primary poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
Edwards has 20% , Richardsoin 4% and Kucinich 2%.
On the GOP side it isn’t quite as close, but with an MOE of 5%, it is still a possible tie:
Thirty-three percent of likely GOP Granite State primary voters support the senator from Arizona, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney six points back at 27 percent.
Rudy has 14%, Huckabee 11%, Paul 9%1, and Hunter and Thompson are both at 1%2
According to Zogby:
Democrat Barack Obama has pulled into a virtual dead heat with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire two days before the state’s presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.
And on the GOP side:
Republican rivals Mitt Romney and John McCain are also essentially deadlocked as the White House races in both parties tightened ahead of Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
Obama now leads Clinton by a margin of 33-31 percent, thanks to an apparent surge of support the night after he won the Iowa caucuses. Given the poll’s margin of error, the numbers amount to a statistical tie. But that still marks a gain for Obama, who has trailed Clinton in New Hampshire for months.
On the Republican side, McCain led the field by 32-24 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. There, it was McCain who got a bounce, not Iowa winner Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who still trails in third place and appeared to get no immediate traction from Iowa.
That is a significant lead for McCain.
The outlying poll is the American Research Group’s which has Obama at 38% and Clinton at 26% and McCain at39% and Romney at 25%. Those numbers seem rather unlikely.
James Joyner looks at the RCP numbers and McCain’s rise in NH.
Sphere: Related Content
On the ARG polls, I would say that one of them is rather unlikely. I do not have a lot of confidence in the ability of these polls to pick up the extent to which independents will choose to vote in one primary or the other. Many might wait till voting day to decide.
McCain and Obama have appeal to independents (earth-shattering contribution from MSS!), and so either of them could swamp his respective field. I would expect that to be Obama, and the projected lead for McCain thus to be a bit exaggerated.
As I always say, I do not make predictions, and they would be useless if I made them. BUT… I would not be at all surprised to see Obama 10-15 points ahead once the actual votes are known.
Comment by MSS — Sunday, January 6, 2024 @ 11:41 am
I believe the polls are certainly a bit incorrect on the Republican side. Mitt Romney demonstrated his intelligence and ability to get his point accross in a professional manner during last evenings debate. Everywhere I have been today, people are talking about how last night’s debate turned them totally against the Republican candidates who turned on Romney…especially McCain. Their snipping at Romney showed how frightened they are of his electability. I had been a long term Democrat and switched to an independant over the past decade. I certainly will vote for Mitt Romney…he is the best chance we have as a country to succeed economically, remain safe by securing our boarders as well as changing Washington away from the special interest groups. If we want tax cuts, a stable ecomomy , and our freedom, Mitt Romney is the main to lead our country!
1/6/2008
Two days before voters go to the polls in the New Hampshire Primaries, Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in a statistical tie, according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University tracking poll released this morning. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and John McCain are deadlocked in the Republican Primary.
In the Democratic Primary, Clinton (35 percent) leads Obama (33 percent), John Edwards (14 percent), Bill Richardson (5 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent) and Mike Gravel (1 percent). Eleven percent were undecided.
Steady gain for Obama
“Barack Obama has cut a seventeen-point deficit to just two points today,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He’s done this in four days with no sign of a slowing trend.”
Edwards remains viable at 14 percent, which is helping Clinton maintain a slight edge. However, if in the last 48 hours Edwards voters choose one of the top two candidates, survey research suggests that Edwards’ demographics already are predisposed to rotating to Obama.
Also, among likely voters ages 18-35, Obama extended his lead over Clinton to a whopping 51-percent-to-26-percent margin, compared to the previous tracking, where he led Clinton 44 percent-to-31 percent.
Ron Paul passes Huckabee
In the Republican Primary, the 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll shows Romney (30 percent) leading McCain (27 percent), followed by Rudy Giuliani (10 percent), Ron Paul (9 percent), Mike Huckabee (7 percent), Fred Thompson (2 percent) and Duncan Hunter (1 percent). Twelve percent were undecided. Paul is now polling ahead of Iowa Caucus winner Huckabee.
“Ron Paul could be to Mitt Romney what Ralph Nader was to Al Gore – a spoiler. He seems to be the repository of the disaffected, anti-establishment, libertarian-leaning conservative wing of the Republican Party,” said Paleologos.
Paul’s 16 percent showing among voters ages 18-35 is taking votes away from Romney, who leads McCain (29 percent-to-21 percent) in that category.
Romney continued to lead McCain in both Massachusetts bordering counties: Hillsborough (38 percent-to-23 percent) and Rockingham (35 percent-to-22 percent). These two counties account for more than half of the expected likely votes cast in the Republican Primary. McCain led Romney in the remaining eight smaller counties.
Methodology
The poll released today is the sixth in a series of daily tracking polls conducted by 7NEWS/Suffolk University leading up to the Jan. 8 Primary. Each poll consists of 250 likely voters statewide each day from the Democratic and Republican Primaries. A two-day rolling average of 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans is reported every morning at 9 a.m. on “7NEWS Today in New England.”
Suffolk University Adjunct Professor David Paleologos is available all week in Manchester, N.H., to comment on the latest trends and demographics and to offer political analysis. He may be reached at 781-290-9310 or 646-228-4448.
The 7NEWS-Suffolk University tracking poll was conducted Jan. 4 and Jan. 5. The margin of error for each party subsample of 500 respondents is +/- 4.38 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The 1,000-respondent margin of error is +/- 3.10 percent. All respondents were likely voters for the respective New Hampshire presidential primaries on Jan. 8, 2024. Charts, marginals and 54 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site on Jan. 6, 2024.
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Comment by Susan Connolly — Sunday, January 6, 2024 @ 2:07 pm
[…] Very interesting. That comports with the American Research Group poll, but contradicts several others–see the round-up I posted this morning. […]
Pingback by PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Another Poll With a Double-Digit Lead for Obama — Sunday, January 6, 2024 @ 7:52 pm